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Showing posts with label Business and Economy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Business and Economy. Show all posts

Saturday 1 September 2018

SST - for better or worse ?

What is Sales & Service Tax (SST) in Malaysia? - SST Malaysia

Today, the Sales and Service Tax (SST) makes a comeback on our tax radar screen to replace the three years and two months old Goods and Services Tax (GST), which was implemented on April 1, 2015.

The abolition of the GST and replaced with SST is an election promise of the Pakatan Harapan manifesto.

It has been claimed that the GST is a regressive broad-based consumption tax that has burdened the low- and middle-income households amid the rising cost of living. The multi-stage tax levied on supply chains also caused cascading cost and price effects on goods and services. That said, the Finance Minister has acknowledged that the GST is an efficient and transparent tax.

Following the implementation of the SST, the Government will come to terms that the budget spending will have to be rationalised and realigned with the lower revenue collection from the SST to keep the lower budget deficit target on track.

The expected revenue collection from SST is RM21bil compared to an average of RM42.7bil per year in 2016-17 from GST.

During the period 2010-2014, the revenue collection from the SST, averaging RM14.8bil per year (the largest amount collected on record was RM17.2bil in 2014), of which 64% was contributed by the sales tax rate of 10% while the balance 36% from the service tax of 6%.

Faced with the revenue shortfall, the Government expects cost-savings, plugging of leakages, weeding out of corruption as well as the containment of the costs of projects would help to balance the financing gap between revenue and spending.

The sales tax rate (0%, 10% and 5% as well as a specific rate for petroleum) and service tax of 6% is imposed on consumers who use certain prescribed services. The taxable threshold for SST is set at annual revenue of RM500,000, the same threshold as GST, with the exception for eateries and restaurants at RM1.5mil.

As SST is levied only at a single stage of the supply chain, that is at the manufacturers or importers level and NOT at wholesalers, retailers and final consumers, it has cut off the number of registered tax persons and establishments from 476,023 companies under GST as of 15 July to an estimated 100,405 under SST.

The smaller number of registered establishments means no more compliance cost to about 85% of traders.

The distributive traders (wholesalers and retailers) will be hassle-free from cash flow problems, as they are no longer required to submit GST output tax while waiting to claim back the GST input tax. During GST, many traders imputed refunds into their pricing because of the delay in GST refunds. This was partly blamed for the cascading cost pass-through and price increases onto consumers.

For SST, 38% of the goods and services in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket are taxable compared to 60% under the GST.

It is estimated that up to RM70bil will be freed up to allow consumers to spend more.

Expanded scope

The proposed service tax regime has a narrower base (43.5% of services is taxable) compared to the GST (64.8% of services is taxable).

Medical insurance for individuals, service charges from hotel, clubs and restaurants as well as household’s electricity usage between 300kWh and 600kWh are not taxable. However, the scope of the new SST has been expanded compared to the previous SST. Among them are gaming, domestic flights (excluding rural air services), IT services, insurance and takaful for individuals, more telecommunication services and preparation of food and beverage services as well as electricity supply (household usage above 600kWh).

For hospitality services, the proposed service tax lowered the registration threshold of general restaurants (not attached with hotel) from an annual revenue of RM3mil under old service tax regime to RM1.5mil, resulting in expanded coverage of more restaurants.

Private hospital services will be excluded under the new SST regime.

How does SST affect consumers?

Technically speaking, the revenue shortfall of RM23bil between SST and GST is a form of “income transfer” from the Government to households and businesses. This is equivalent to tax cuts to support consumer spending.

Will it lead to higher consumer prices?

The contentious issue is will the SST burden households more than that of the GST? It must be noted that the cost of living not only encompasses prices paid for goods and services but also housing, transportation, medical and other living expenses.

The degree of sales tax impact would depend on the cost and margin (mark-up) of businesses along the supply chain before reaching end-consumers.

The coverage and scope of tax imposed also matter.

As the price paid by consumers is embedded in the selling price, this gives rise to psychology effect that sales tax is somewhat better off than GST.

The good news to consumers is that 38% of the goods and services in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket are taxable compared to the 60% under the GST.

Technically speaking, monthly headline inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is likely to show a flat growth or even declines in the months ahead.

It must be noted that consumers should compare prices before GST versus the three-month tax holiday (June-August).

Generally, consumers perceived that prices should either come down or remained unchanged as the sales tax is levied on manufacturers.

On average, some items (electrical appliances and big ticket items such as cars) would be costlier when compared to GST and some may come down (new items exempted from SST).

Nevertheless, we caution that consumers may experience some price increases, as prices generally did not come as much following the removal of GST in June.

There are concerns that prices may still go up in September when the new SST kicks in as irresponsible traders may take advantage to increase prices further.

Household consumption, which got a big boost during the three-month tax holiday in June-August, could see some normalisation in spending.

The smooth implementation of the new SST, accompanied by strict enforcement of price checks and the curbing of profiteering, especially for essentials goods and services consumed by B40 income households, are crucial to keep the level of general prices stable.

Strong consumer activism with the support of The Federation of Malaysian Consumers Association and the Consumers Association Penang as well as the media must work together to help in price surveillance and protect consumers’ interest.

Credit to Lee Heng Guie - comment

Related post:

GST vs SST. Which is better?

 

Tuesday 21 August 2018

PM: Understand Malaysia’s fiscal woes

hhttps://youtu.be/Kb266n1yH8M

https://youtu.be/aG6Sup8qo8g

Wow! China's most impressive Guard of Honour for Tun Mahathier
https://youtu.be/-_UD5W1KKEQ

TUN Dr Mahathir Mohamad has appealed to China for its understanding on Malaysia’s fiscal woes, as uncertainty hovers over the China-backed infrastructure projects back home.

The Prime Minister, who is on a five-day visit to China, also hoped Beijing could lend a helping hand to solve the problems plaguing Putrajaya.

“We hope to get China to understand the problem faced by Malaysia today and believe it would look sympathetically towards the problem we need to resolve.

“And perhaps help us resolve some of our internal fiscal problems,” he said.

Dr Mahathir was speaking at a joint press conference with his Chinese counterpart Li Keqiang at the Great Hall of the People here yesterday, following the official welcoming ceremony and a closed-door meeting.

While Dr Mahathir had stopped short of specifying the problem, the Pakatan Harapan government had said that the country’s debt is now above RM1 trillion.

The new administration was also critical of the “lopsided” deals with China and moved to suspend projects with Chinese investment, such as the East Coast Rail Link, the Multi-Product Pipeline and the Trans-Sabah Gas Pipeline.

During this visit, Dr Mahathir had stressed that Malaysia was not against any Chinese firms and that he welcomed Chinese businessmen to invest in Malaysia.

At the press conference, Dr Mahathir said Malaysia had much to gain from China and believes that Chinese investment could bring down the unemployment rate in the country.

“Malaysia has a policy of being friendly to every country in the world irrespective of its ideology. This is because we need to have a market for our produce,” he said while expressing hope that Malaysia would become a South-East Asian hub for new technology being developed in China.

“China has great entrepreneurs with innovative ideas in doing business that Malaysians can learn from.

“China has got a lot that will be beneficial to us. It is a big and rich market created by very dynamic people,” he said.

Asked about his views on the trade war between China and the United States, Dr Mahathir said Malaysia would support free and fair trade.

He said he did not want to see this trade war becoming a new form of colonialism.

Dr Mahathir’s trip, which ends today, is his first official visit to China since his return to helm the country.

Ministers joining him on the trip are Foreign Affairs Minister Datuk Saifuddin Abdullah, Primary Industries Minister Teresa Kok, International Trade and Industry Minister Ignatius Darell Leiking, Agriculture and Agro-based Industry Minister Datuk Salahuddin Ayub, Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department Datuk Liew Vui Keong and Entrepreneurial Development Minister Mohd Redzuan Md Yusof.

Meanwhile, Dr Mahathir also had a closed-door meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping yesterday evening at the Diaoyutai State Guest House.

Accompanied by his wife Tun Dr Siti Hasmah Mohd Ali, he later attended a dinner hosted by Xi and his wife Peng Liyuan.

Bernama reported that Dr Mahathir gave the assurance to Xi that there would be no changes in policy towards under the new Malaysian government.

He told Xi that he was impressed with the level of development achieved by China.

“We see China as a model for development,” he said.

Credit: Beh Yuen Hui The Star

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Monday 13 August 2018

Malaysia needs more childcare & daycare centres

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/nation/2018/08/13/malaysia-needs-more-childcare-centres-dpm-we-are-also-in-dire-need-of-qualified-workers-to-ensure-sa/
https://youtu.be/N6GSfiHN6mw

PUTRAJAYA: There is a dire need for more qualified childcare workers and registered childcare centres in the country, says Datuk Seri Dr Wan Azizah Wan Ismail.

The Deputy Prime Minister said that these shortages could adversely affect the safety and quality of care for Malaysian children.

“Data from the Welfare Department showed that up to June this year, the number of childcare workers looking after children four years and below is 16,873.

“Out of this, only 3,173 of them have the minimum qualification of a childcare course,” said Dr Wan Azizah, who is also Women, Family and Community Development Minister.


She was speaking at the launch of the National Childcare Centre Day 2018 themed “Equality” at the IOI City Mall here yesterday.

Dr Wan Azizah added that the rest of childcare workers in the country, all 13,700 or 80.19% of them, did not have the minimum qualification for the job.

She said the lack of qualified childcare workers contributed to the lack of registered childcare centres in the country.

“Calculations based on a census done by Malaysian Statistics Department showed that we need to have 38,333 registered childcare centres.

“However, the actual number at present is only 4,302,” she said.

Dr Wan Azizah said her ministry took a serious view on the safety of children at childcare centres and at the homes of childcare providers. “We are looking at the need to improve on the Child Care Centre Act and regulations on childcare centres to fit the current needs and situation,” she said.

She added that her ministry was also studying how to utilise information and communication technology to be included in the childcare system in the country. The Star

GST vs SST. Which is better?


MALAYSIA’s decision to revert to the Sales and Service Tax (SST) from the Goods and Services Tax (GST) will result in a higher disposable income due to relatively lower prices it will incur in most goods and services.

Consumers will have a choice in their consumption – by paying service taxes based on their affordability and ability.

The coverage of GST was comprehensive and it covered too wide a sector. While it was able collect a sustainable sum of RM44bil for the country, it was not people-friendly.

The narrowing scope of the SST will at most, collect approximately RM23bil for the country but it will indeed relieve the people – so SST is needed by the people.

Methodology of SST

The Sales Tax Bill and the Service Tax Bill have just been passed at the Dewan Rakyat and are expected to get approval from the Dewan Negara when it convenes on August 20.

This leaves little room for businesses and entrepreneurs to get ready for the new tax regime in less than a month’s time.

Therefore, it is of utmost importance to understand the concept and mechanism of SST as stated in both the Bills.

SST comprises two legislations. The sales tax is imposed on the manufacturing sector as governed by the Sales Tax Act 2018 while service tax is imposed on selected service sectors, with one of the most notable ones being the food and beverage (F&B) service providers.

The Service Tax Act 2018 would govern the selected service providers and the details would be gazetted in the subsidiary legislation, PU(A) Service Tax Regulations 2018.

Finance Minister Lim Guan Eng has announced that the threshold for F&B providers is set at annual turnover of RM1mil.

This would mean that those who operate with less than RM1mil turnover would not charge service tax at 6%.

This translates into hawker food, cafes, take aways or food trucks being able to provide F&B at lower prices as compared to the GST regime of 6%. Consumers are deemed to be given an option to pay service tax or not, depending on their consumptions at places such as fast food outlets, restaurants or food courts.

Generally, living costs will be relatively lower in the SST era as the B40 group of consumers would certainly be relieved in their daily eating affair.

The existing GST regime sets up the threshold at RM500,000 per year, meaning that almost all restaurants, including simple mixed rice outlets, would have a GST of 6% imposed. The service tax regime would not impose service tax of 6% on service charge rendered in any restaurant or café operator.

Service charge in its true essence, represents tips or gratuity to the waiters working in the restaurant and it is entirely at the discretion of the F&B operators.

These operators may choose to charge from 5% to 15% or even free of charge. In summary, in the event service charge is imposed, it would not be subject to service tax.

SST is people friendly as the daily consumption of food and beverages would be much lower in price as compared to the GST regime. The imposition of service charge is not governed by any law and it is entirely at the discretion of the F&B operators.

In order to avoid disputes, it is advised that notice be placed outside the premises if the F&B operator is imposing a service charge ans the rate determined by them.

SST is one stage

Sales Tax is only imposed one time on the manufacturing company when a sale is made to a trading company. The subsequent sales of the goods by the trading company would have no sales tax imposed.

Business entrepreneurs must be mindful and careful in the cost management as Sales Tax – although imposed at 10% – would eventually result in a much lower pricing of goods as compared to the GST regime.

GST is operating on a value added concept with input tax available as deduction. The supply chain moving from manufacturers to distributors, dealers and to consumers would result in higher pricing as GST is imposed on final stage, comprising of value add and profit margin.

SST is a business cost

Under the GST regime, input tax is available as a credit or deduction against output tax based on tax invoice received from GST registrant suppliers.

This would mean that GST is never a business cost as deduction is available against output tax even though there is no sales generated. Sales Tax on the other hand, would be paid by the trading company purchasing goods from the manufacturing company.

It is a business cost and deduction is only available when there is a sale. This would mean that business cost would be higher as Sales Tax is part of the inventory cost and to be deducted as cost of sales when goods are sold or exported. In simple terms, no sales, no deductions.

Businessmen are urged to carefully analyse the cost and not overprice the goods for the benefits of the people and the sustainability of their businesses. The reduction of GST from 6% to nil would immediately translate a price reduction of 6%, which is a must for a businesses to adhere to.

Failure to adhere to the pricing would expose the operators to the fines and penalties on anti-profiteering governed by Price Control and Anti-Profiteering Act 2011.

As the breakdown shows, SST is well suited in the Malaysian environment, to both the business communities and the people.

Source: Dr Choong Kwai FattDubbed the Malaysian tax guru, Dr Choong Kwai Fatt is a tax specialist and advocate.

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    Monday 2 July 2018

    Govt Linked Companies (GLCs) - Monsters in the house?

    Politicians should not be appointed to run government-linked companies (GLCs) to keep graft in check, said Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission Advisory Board Chairman Tunku Abdul Aziz Tunku Ibrahim.He said politicians holding GLC positions might face conflicts of interest, leading to abuse of power and responsibility.



     ABOUT a month before Malaysia’s parliamentary election in May, then-opposition leader Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad raised concerns over the role that government-linked companies (GLCs) were playing in the economy, being “huge and rich” enough to be considered “monsters”.

    Data support his description – GLCs account for about half of the benchmark Kuala Lumpur Composite Index, and they constitute seven out of the top-10 listed firms in 2018. They are present in almost every sector, sometimes in a towering way. Globally, Malaysia ranks fifth-highest in terms of GLC influence on the economy.

    Calls to do something about GLCs have increased since the election following the release of more damning information, although most of it relates to the GLCs’ investment arm: government-linked investment companies (GLICs).

    Some experts have proposed the formation of an independent body with operational oversight for GLICs, after institutional autonomy is established and internal managerial reforms are introduced. Unlike most GLCs, GLICs are not publicly listed and face little scrutiny. The same applies to the various funds at the constituent state level, which need to be looked at too.

    For GLCs, the answer is less straightforward. PM Tun Mahathir claims that GLCs have lost track of their original function. Before the Malaysian government decides on what to do, it needs to examine the role GLCs should play – as opposed to the role they currently play – and to examine their impact on the economy.

    In Malaysia, GLCs were uniquely tasked to assist in the government’s affirmative action program to improve the absolute and relative position of bumiputras. The intention was to help create a new class of bumiputra entrepreneurs – first through the GLCs themselves, and then through a process of divestment.

    Given the amounts of money involved and the cost of the distortions introduced, the benefits to bumiputra were unjustifiably small and unequally distributed. The approach of using GLCs as instruments of affirmative action failed because it led to a rise in state dependence, widespread complacency and even corruption, as Tun Mahathir himself recognised in his memoirs, A Doctor in the House, and again more recently. There is also empirical evidence that GLCs have been crowding out private investment, a concern raised in the New Economic Model as early as 2011.

    Additionally, the new government has correctly highlighted the need to include certain off-balance-sheet items and contingent liabilities, such as government guarantees and public-private partnership lease payments, in any complete assessment of debt outstanding. The use of offshoot companies and special purpose vehicles (SPVs) in the deliberate reconfiguration of certain obligations mean that traditional debt calculations underestimate Malaysia’s actual debt.

    All these factors combine to place new impetus on reconsidering the extent of government involvement in business. Divestment will not solve Malaysia’s debt problem, but it can help if there are good reasons to pursue it. So how should the government proceed?

    It is important to recognise at the outset, that there is a legitimate role for government in business – providing public goods, addressing market failures or promoting social advancement. And like in most other countries, there are good and bad GLCs in Malaysia. If a GLC is not crowding out private enterprise, operates efficiently and performs a social function effectively, then there is no reason to consider divestment. But a GLC that crowds out private investment in a sector with no public or social function, or one that is inefficiently run, should be a candidate for divestment. In this regard, one has to carefully study why GLCs should be present in retail, construction or property development, for instance.

    In assessing performance, one needs to separate results that arise from true efficiency, versus preferential treatment that generates artificial rent for the GLC. The latter is a drain on public resources and a tax on consumers. Divestment in this case, will likely provide more than a one-off financial injection to government coffers – it will provide ongoing benefits through fiscal savings or better allocation of public resources.

    The divestment process should be carefully managed to ensure that public assets are disposed at fair market value, and does not concentrate market power or wealth in the hands of a few. This has allegedly happened with privatisation efforts in the past.

    The new government has committed itself to addressing corruption and improving the management of public resources. As part of this process, one must re-examine just how much government is involved in business. This is one of the many tasks that the Council of Eminent Persons is undertaking in the first 100 days of the new government.

    To be done correctly, would require a careful study of GLCs and their impacts. This could then rejuvenate the private sector while enabling good GLCs to thrive, and fortify Malaysia’s fiscal position in the process. This is what Malaysians should expect – and indeed demand – of the “New Malaysia”.

    Jayant Menon is Lead Economist in the Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department at the Asian Development Bank. This is an abridged version of an item that first appeared on the East Asia Forum. Related articles

    Jayant Menon The Sundaily

    Monday 18 June 2018

    US-China trade war escalates, tariff list aims to hinder China’s high-tech development: expert

    https://youtu.be/vK4ADxuvIgk https://youtu.be/HdADW3ZpFNs


    China will impose 25 percent in tariffs on 659 US goods worth $50 billion, including soybeans, cars and seafood.

    The move came as a tit-for-tat response to the tariffs announced by the Trump administration Friday morning. An expert said the US decision does not aim to tackle the trade deficit with China but to block the Chinese government's efforts in high-tech development.

    Tariffs on 545 US goods worth $34 billion will take effect on July 6, involving agricultural products, car parts and seafood, according to a statement released by China's Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM) on Saturday morning. Soybeans, which are China's biggest import from the US in value, are on the list.

    Chemicals, medical equipment and energy products from the US will also be subject to 25 percent tariffs, which will be announced at a later date.

    The revised list is longer and involves more categories of products than a preliminary list of 106 US goods published by the ministry in April, but the total value of the products remains at $50 billion.

    A Chinese commerce expert found that aircraft were removed from China's new list, which is noteworthy.

    "We need aircraft [from the US]. We have to consider the costs of the countermeasures we plan to take," Bai Ming, deputy director of the Ministry of Commerce's International Market Research Institute, said on Saturday soon after the Chinese tariffs were announced.

    It's like acting as a soccer referee who will not call out the offenses and let the play continue when the game still benefits the attacking team even though an attacking player is fouled, Bai further explained.

    China is one of the fastest-growing civil aviation markets in the world, and 15 to 20 percent of Boeing's aircraft deliveries are projected to end in the Chinese market over the next two decades, according to Morgan Stanley.

    The US has kept changing their mind and ignited a trade war, which China does not want and will firmly oppose, a spokesperson of the MOFCOM said immediately after US took trade measures on China. "This move not only hurts bilateral interests, but also undermines the world trade order."

    "China and the US still have hopes of negotiating and reaching an agreement, as both the tariffs announced by the two countries will not take into effect until next month," said Wang Jun, deputy director of the Department of Information at the China Center for International Economic Exchanges.

    Wang told the Global Times that the removal of aircraft from the new list can be a signal that China still wants to talk, and also aircraft can be a valuable chip in the next round of trade negotiations.

    Meanwhile, Wang said the Trump administration's newly published list is not so much a solution for the trade deficit problem with China as efforts to hinder China's technology development.

    US President Donald Trump on Friday announced 25 percent tariffs on $50 billion in Chinese goods, containing industrially significant technologies related to China's "Made In China 2025" strategy.

    According to a list published by the office of the US Trade Representative, the tariffs will be applied on more than 1,000 types of Chinese goods, including aircraft engine parts, bulldozers, nuclear reactors and industrial and agricultural machinery.

    American industry also opposed Trump's decision.

    "Imposing tariffs places the cost of China's unfair trade practices squarely on the shoulders of American consumers, manufacturers, farmers, and ranchers. This is not the right approach," US Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Thomas J. Donohue said in a statement posted on the chamber's website on Friday.

    By Zhang Ye Source:Global Times


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    Friday 15 June 2018

    US Federal Reserve rate rise, Malaysia and regional equity markets in the red


    Fed’s big balance-sheet unwind could be coming to an early end


    NEW YORK: The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet may not have that much further to shrink.

    An unexpected rise in overnight interest rates is pulling forward a key debate among US central bankers over how much liquidity they should keep in the financial system. The outcome will determine the ultimate size of the balance sheet, which they are slowly winding down, with key implications for US monetary policy.

    One consequence was visible on Wednesday. The Fed raised the target range for its benchmark rate by a quarter point to 1.75% to 2%, but only increased the rate it pays banks on cash held with it overnight to 1.95%. The step was designed to keep the federal funds rate from rising above the target range. Previously, the Fed set the rate of interest on reserves at the top of the target range.

    Shrinking the balance sheet effectively constitutes a form of policy tightening by putting upward pressure on long-term borrowing costs, just as expanding it via bond purchases during the financial crisis made financial conditions easier. Since beginning the shrinking process in October, the Fed has trimmed its bond portfolio by around US$150bil to US$4.3 trillion, while remaining vague on how small it could become.

    This reticence is partly because the Fed doesn’t know how much cash banks will want to hold at the central bank, which they need to do in order to satisfy post-crisis regulatory requirements.

    Officials have said that, as they drain cash from the system by shrinking the balance sheet, a rise in the federal funds rate within their target range would be an important sign that liquidity is becoming scarce.

    Now that the benchmark rate is rising, there is some skepticism. The increase appears to be mainly driven by another factor: the US Treasury ramped up issuance of short-term US government bills, which drove up yields on those and other competing assets, including in the overnight market.

    “We are looking carefully at that, and the truth is, we don’t know with any precision,” Fed chairman Jerome Powell told reporters on Wednesday when asked about the increase. “Really, no one does. You can’t run experiments with one effect and not the other.”

    “We’re just going to have to be watching and learning. And, frankly, we don’t have to know today,” he added.

    But many also see increasingly scarce cash balances as at least a partial explanation for the upward drift of the funds rate, and as a result, several analysts are pulling forward their estimates of when the balance sheet shrinkage will end.

    Mark Cabana, a Bank of America rates strategist, said in a report published June 5 that Fed officials may stop draining liquidity from the system in late 2019 or early 2020, leaving US$1 trillion of cash on bank balance sheets. That compares with an average of around US$2.1 trillion held in reserves at the Fed so far this year.

    Cabana, who from 2007 to 2015 worked in the New York Fed’s markets group responsible for managing the balance sheet, even sees a risk that the unwind ends this year.

    One reason why people may have underestimated bank demand for cash to meet the new rules is that Fed supervisors have been quietly telling banks they need more of it, according to William Nelson, chief economist at The Clearing House Association, a banking industry group.

    The requirement, known as the Liquidity Coverage Ratio, says banks must hold a certain percentage of their assets either in the form of cash deposited at the Fed or in US Treasury securities, to ensure they have enough liquidity to deal with deposit outflows.

    The Fed flooded the banking system with reserves as a byproduct of its crisis-era bond-buying programs, known as quantitative easing, to stimulate the economy. The money it paid investors to buy their bonds was deposited in banks, which the banks in turn hold as cash in reserve accounts at the Fed.

    In theory, the unwind of the bond portfolio, which involves the reverse swap of assets between the Fed and investors, shouldn’t affect the total amount of Treasuries and reserves available to meet the requirement. The Fed destroys reserves by unwinding the portfolio, but releases an equivalent amount of Treasuries to the market in the process.

    But if Fed supervisors are telling banks to prioritise reserves, that logic no longer applies. Nelson asked Randal Quarles, the Fed’s vice-chairman for supervision, if this was the Fed’s new policy. Quarles, who was taking part in a May 4 conference at Stanford University, said he knew that message had been communicated and is “being rethought”.

    If Fed officials do opt for a bigger balance sheet and decide to continue telling banks to prioritise cash over Treasuries, it may mean lower long-term interest rates, according to Seth Carpenter, the New York-based chief US economist at UBS Securities.

    “If reserves are scarce right now, and if the Fed does stop unwinding its balance sheet, the market is going to react to that, a lot,” said Carpenter, a former Fed economist. “Everyone anticipates a certain amount of extra Treasury supply coming to the market, and this would tell people, ‘Nope, it’s going to be less than you thought’.” — Bloomberg

    Malaysia and regional equity markets in the red


    In Malaysia, the selling streak has been ongoing for almost a month. As of June 8, the year to date outflow stands at RM3.02bil, which is still one of the lowest among its Asean peers. The FBM KLCI was down 1.79 points yesterday to 1,761.

    PETALING JAYA: It was a sea of red for equity markets across the region after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter percentage point to a range of 1.75% to 2% on Wednesday, and funds continued to move their money back to the US. This is the second time the Fed has raised interest rates this year.

    In general, markets weren’t down by much, probably because the rate hike had mostly been anticipated. Furthermore for Asia, the withdrawal of funds has been taking place over the last 11 weeks, hence, the pace of selling was slowing.

    The Nikkei 225 was down 0.99% to 22,738, the Hang Seng Index was down 0.93% to 30,440, the Shanghai Composite Index was down 0.08% to 3,047.34 while the Singapore Straits Times Index was down 1.05% to 3,356.73.

    In Malaysia, the selling streak has been ongoing for almost a month. As of June 8, the year to date outflow stands at RM3.02bil, which is still one of the lowest among its Asean peers. The FBM KLCI was down 1.79 points yesterday to 1,761.

    Meanwhile, the Fed is nine months into its plan to shrink its balance sheet which consists some US$4.5 trillion of bonds. The Fed has begun unwinding its balance sheet slowly by selling off US$10bil in assets a month. Eventually, it plans to increase sales to US$50bil per month.

    With the economy of the United States showing it was strong enough to grow with higher borrowing costs, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates on Wednesday and signalled that two additional increases would be made this year.

    Fed chairman Jerome H. Powell in a news conference on Wednesday said the economy had strengthened significantly since the 2008 financial crisis and was approaching a “normal” level that could allow the Fed to soon step back and play less of a hands-on role in encouraging economic activity.

    Rate hikes basically mean higher borrowing costs for cars, home mortgages and credit cards over the years to come.

    Wednesday’s rate increase was the second this year and the seventh since the end of the Great Recession and brings the Fed’s benchmark rate to a range of 1.75% to 2%. The last time the rate reached 2% was in late 2008, when the economy was contracting.

    “With a slightly more aggressive plan to tighten monetary policy this year than had previously been projected by the Fed, it will narrow our closely watched gap between the yield rates of two-year and 10-year Treasury notes, which has recently been one of a strong predictor of recessions,” said Anthony Dass, chief economist in AmBank.

    Dass expects the policy rate to normalise at 2.75% to 3%.

    “Thus, we should potentially see the yield curve invert in the first half of 2019,” he said.

    So what does higher interest rates mean for emerging markets?

    It means a flight of capital back to the US, and many Asian countries will be forced to increase interest rates to defend their respective currencies.

    Certainly, capital has been exiting emerging market economies. Data from the Institute of International Finance for May showed that emerging markets experienced a combined US$12.3bil of outflows from bonds and stocks last month.

    With that sort of global capital outflow, countries such as India, Indonesia, the Philippines and Turkey, have hiked their domestic rates recently.

    Data from Lipper, a unit of Thomson Reuters, shows that for the week ending June 6, US-based money market funds saw inflows of nearly US$34.9bil.

    It makes sense for investors to be drawn to the US, where the economy is increasingly solid, coupled with higher yields and lower perceived risks.

    Hong Kong for example is fighting an intense battle to fend off currency traders. Since April, Hong Kong has spent at least US$9bil defending its peg to the US dollar. Judging by the fact that two more rate hikes are on the way this year, more ammunition is going to be needed.

    Hong Kong has the world’s largest per capita foreign exchange reserves – US$434bil more in firepower.

    By right, the Hong Kong dollar should be surging. Nonetheless, the currency is sliding because of a massive “carry trade.”

    Investors are borrowing cheaply in Hong Kong to buy higher-yielding assets in the US, where 10-year Treasury yields are near 3%.

    From a contrarian’s perspective, global funds are now massively under-weighted Asia.

    With Asian markets currently trading at 12.3 times forward price earnings ratio, this is a reasonable valuation at this matured stage of the market.

    By Tee Lin Say StarBiz

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    Thursday 31 May 2018

    Malaysia's scraps MRT3 project, reviews HSR, ECRL mega projects to reduce borrowings

    https://youtu.be/kAGJvuDRi5M  https://youtu.be/zJ8m_yMIJwg https://youtu.be/2FWWQTdszeo https://youtu.be/i2XEugxWl9A

    https://youtu.be/w-GjTOUPy6U

    PUTRAJAYA: The Klang Valley mass rapid transit line 3 (MRT 3 or Circle Line) project, reported to cost between RM40bil and RM45bil, will not proceed, says Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad.

    The MRT3 or MRT Circle Line was planned as the third MRT line for the Greater Klang Valley area.

    While the MRT1 connects Sungai Buloh and Kajang, the MRT2, which is now under construction, will run from Sungai Buloh to Serdang and Putrajaya.

    MRT3 was planned as a loop line to integrate the lines, with most of its stations underground.

    He also said the Kuala Lumpur-Singapore High-Speed Rail (HSR) was still being studied, while a review was being done on the East Cost Rail Link (ECRL).

    He said Malaysia was open to re-considering its decision on the HSR if Singapore could convince Malaysia to proceed with it.

    He said the Cabinet had agreed for the rail project to be scrapped, but it would also depend on discussions with Singapore.

    “We want to do this as it has high financial implications. But we will listen to them (if Singapore wants to proceed). They are our good partners,” he told the media after chairing the Cabinet meeting yesterday.

    He explained that Malaysia needed to reduce its borrowings, hence the decision to scrap HSR and review other mega projects that cost billions of ringgit.

    “We have borrowed too much money. If this country is to avoid bankruptcy, we must learn how to manage our big debts by doing away with projects that are not beneficial to the country,” he added.

    Later, at a buka puasa event at Putrajaya International Convention Centre, he said the money spent on the HSR project did not justify the number of jobs it could generate.

    “If you are going to spend RM60bil to RM100bil so that thousands of people can work, that’s not very efficient,” he said in response to a Facebook post by former prime minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak, who defended the HSR.

    Najib, who asked the Government not to make “an emotional decision” to scrap the project, said the HSR was projected to create RM650bil in gross national income and 110,000 job opportunities, which could expand to 442,000 jobs by 2069.

    On the fate of the ECRL, Dr Mahathir said the project has not been called off and a detailed review was being conducted.

    “We haven’t cancelled ECRL. We have spent a lot of money on it and need to look at ways to handle this matter,” he said.

    According to recent reports, the actual cost of the ECRL could be more than RM55bil.

    Dr Mahathir also said the 11th Malaysia Plan mid-term review would be tabled in Parliament in November along with Budget 2019.

    “The review will take into consideration the progress of projects carried out from 2016 to 2018, and the Government’s way forward for the remaining period of between this year and 2020,” he added.

    Parliament is expected to start its meeting next month, but Dr Mahathir said the dates had yet to be fixed since the appointment of ministers had not been completed.

    On whether the Cabinet had decided on the fate of the National Civics Bureau (BTN), he said the matter was still being studied.

    The Prime Minister also said no decision had been made on whether the Department of Islamic Develop­ment (Jakim) would be closed.


    Related post:


    Chinese projects in Malaysia may stay intact

    Newly-elected Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad has decided to scrap the Kuala Lumpur-Singapore Rail




    SST implementation date among key decisions made by Cabinet
     https://www.thestar.com.my/~/media/online/2018/05/16/04/35/1mdba.ashx/?w=620&h=413&crop=1&hash=ECE23B276AA140BA80725A657A4FE4303340DA4A

    Rightways