Amidst gloomy news in the deteriorating climate change situation
is this bright spark – the cost of solar energy has been going down
dramatically.
THE source of clean and renewable energy is
seen as one of the major saviours that could help power the world
without emitting greenhouse gases.
The drawback is that solar energy has traditionally been more expensive to use than carbon-intensive coal or oil.
But
in recent years solar power has become much cheaper. Energy experts
predict that its cost could match that of conventional fuels in the next
few years in some areas.
Solar cell prices have been falling,
from US$76 (RM235.52) per watt in 1977 to about US$10 (RM30.99) in 1987
and only 74 cents (RM2.29) in 2013. Between 2006 and 2011, Chinese cell
prices dropped 80% from US$4.50 (RM13.95) per watt to 90 cents (RM2.79)
per watt.
Factors for this include a drop in price of the main
raw material polysilicon (due to oversupply), increasing efficiency of
solar cells, manufacturing technology improvements, economies of scale
and intense competition.
The use of solar energy has shot up as
the cost goes down. Global installed capacity jumped by 28.4 gigawatts
(one gigawatt is 100,000 megawatts) in 2012 to reach 89.5GW. The 100GW
milestone will be crossed some time this year.
All this is good news for the fight against climate change. Now comes the bad news.
The
growing global demand has prompted the rise of solar panel
manufacturers, and the competition is fierce, with a number of companies
facing closure. China’s biggest solar energy company Suntech is in
serious trouble.
But China has even bigger problems. The United
States government, receiving complaints from US solar panel
manufacturers, has slapped high anti-dumping tariffs on Chinese imports.
Now the European Commission also plans tariffs averaging 47% on Chinese solar products which it claims are selling below cost.
China
is taking these threats seriously. Premier Li Keqiang in a visit to
Europe last week took up the issue with European leaders.
Senior trade officials say China will retaliate. A full-scale trade war is thus imminent.
In
a surprise turn of events, Germany and 16 other European countries have
told the European Commission they are against its move.
But EC
Trade Commissioner Karel De Gucht will apparently still slap on the
tariffs provisionally, which is within his power to do.
So the
solar wars between China with Europe and the US will likely proceed.
This is a real pity, as the commercial interests of the countries are
coming in the way of rapid progress in solar energy and the fight
against climate change.
The expansion of the solar panel industry
in China has played a crucial role in getting prices down, making solar
energy more and more competitive, and driving its explosive growth.
Yes, China subsidises and promotes its solar industry. But the US and Europe also provide massive subsidies and supports.
The
US has provided its solar companies with loan guarantees, research
grants and tax deductions including investment tax credits and
accelerated value depreciation.
European countries have given
subsidies to consumers using solar energy, and incentives to producers
including through the feed-in tariff scheme, in which solar energy
providers are paid prices higher than what is charged to electricity
users with the price difference being met by governments.
Without
the subsidies, the solar industry would not have grown. Trade
protectionist measures taken by one against the other, or by all against
others, would be a recipe for disaster – for trade, the solar industry
and the environment.
Well known solar energy advocate and
chairman of Solarcentury Jeremy Leggett uses the following analogy to
illustrate the trade war: “A planet faces an asteroid strike. Its
inhabitants manufacture rockets with which to head off the threat. But,
as the rock nears, they descend into international bickering over who
pockets what from rocket-making.”
No one wins in this trade war,
because of global solar supply chain, explains Leggett. Solar ingots,
the upstream feedstock, are mostly made in Europe and America. The
midstream products, cells and modules, are mostly made in China.
If China is hit on the mid-stream products it exports, it could retaliate with tariffs on the upstream products it imports.
For
example, in Europe, the tariffs against China would wipe out thousands
of jobs because most are not in manufacturing but in the companies that
install the modules, regardless of where they are made.
The
solution, he adds, is for the leaders of the few countries where most
solar panels are manufactured to make a deal that coordinates the
subsidies required in the various parts of the solar chain, and which is
required for the few years that some countries need to bring the price
of solar energy to parity with that of conventional energy.
An
apt conclusion is made by Leggett: “The world will have to embrace
common security on a bigger scale. Engaging in international competition
while clinging to the illusion that markets always work will never
solve our common problems of energy insecurity, poor air quality and
resource depletion, never mind development. We will keep on maiming
industries that can save us.”
Global Trends
By MARTIN KHOR