Asian banks remain to be seen more scandals will surface

HSBC, Standard Chartered and DBS were among 20 banks at which 133 traders tried to manipulate the Singapore interbank offered rate (Sibor). Photo: Bloomberg

HSBC, Standard Chartered, JP Morgan Chase, Barclays and DBS were among 20 banks at which 133 traders tried to manipulate the Singapore interbank offered rate (Sibor), swap offered rates and currency benchmarks in the city state, [the Monetary Authority of Singapore] said.

BANKING scandals are surfacing in Asia, this time in the form of a US$250mil (RM799mil) fine on Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc on claims that it had transferred money to countries facing US sanctions.

According to the South China Morning Post, The Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd, the main lending unit of Japan's biggest bank by market value, moved an estimated US$100bil through the state for government and privately owned entities on the Specially Designated Nationals list.

This list was issued by the US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control between 2002 and 2007, the New York State Department of Financial Services and New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said in a statement recently.

Just about two weeks earlier, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) had cracked down on the rigging of the Singapore Interbank Offered Rate or Sibor.

HSBC, Standard Chartered, JP Morgan Chase, Barclays and DBS were among 20 banks at which 133 traders had tried to manipulate the Sibor, swap offered rates and currency benchmarks in the city-state, MAS said in a statement recently.

Greedy

These incidents within Asian banks are significant, as the European and US banks have been bearing the brunt of criticism.

The major UK banks have been fined for the Libor (the London equivalent of Sibor) rigging and the mis-selling of products.

Due to their role in the churning of derivatives, these banks in the West have been described as greedy, careless and manipulative.

The recent scandals seem to involve only a few Asian banks, but it remains to be seen how many more names will surface and what sort of rules have been flouted.

In view of their important role in the economic growth of Asia, they will be closely watched in terms of risk exposure and ethical banking practices.

So, Asian banks, some of which have become very profitable, beware on all fronts.

In Europe, overnight talks aimed at ensuring shareholders and bond holders bear the brunt of bank failures collapsed after almost 20 hours of discussion, reports The Telegraph.

After investors, the proposals would impose losses on savers with more than 100,000 euros in their account, but France and non-eurozone countries want the ability to tailor the rules, the report says.

Discussing possible bank failures may not be the most urgent agenda, although extreme stress testing and estimation of potential bank losses should be conducted.

This is tied to the capital position of the bank.

However, there should be a constructive approach to boosting capital buffer and ensuring that the bank does not fail rather than what to do if it fails.

It is like pointing a gun at a man's head even before the crime is committed.

Bond bubble

There is said to be a “bond crisis” out there, where the bond bubble is about to burst, with investors looking for other asset classes to invest in.

With the impending halt to the US quantitive easing programme of additional liquidity, this search for other asset classes has become more urgent.

Nevertheless, 'We see improving US gross domestic product as a positive support to risk' assets such as shares, but would expect liquidity reductions to remove some of the froth' from current valuations, including in corporate bonds.

“Where we have the biggest concern is some of the riskier banks.

'Even five years on from the financial crisis, we cannot with any confidence say we are happy with the quality of their balance sheets; this is where risks of capital losses are highest,'' says Chris Bowie, manager of Ignis fund management.

Such is the reality of investing. It involves constant assessment of risk, changes in the markets and valuations.
Micromanagement is usually discouraged but may be useful in this case.

 By Yap Leng Kuen
Columnist Yap Leng Kuen cautions on the headwinds.
Related post:
For the sake of money people will risk anything

For the sake of money people will risk anything

Singapore's investigation into banks was triggered by the Libor-rigging scandal last year. 

HOT on the heels of the London interbank offered rate (Libor) rigging scandal comes the Singapore interbank offered rate (Sibor), the Singapore equivalent of the Libor rigging.

HSBC, Standard Chartered, JP Morgan Chase, Barclays and DBS are among 20 banks in which 133 traders tried to manipulate the Sibor, swap offered rates and currency benchmarks in the city-state, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) said in a statement recently.

For the sake of money, people will risk anything. In this case, Singapore is well known as a tough regulator, but they still dare to mess around with the Sibor. They are definitely asking for trouble.

According to South China Morning Post, MAS has censured banks for trying to rig benchmark interest rates and ordered them to set aside about S$12bil (RM30.13bil) at zero interest, pending measures to improve internal controls.

It is surprising that these traders have been caught with their pants down.

Regulators have cracked down on market players following the Libor rigging fiasco, which involved Barclays, UBS and the Royal Bank of Scotland paying fines of up to US$2.5bil (RM7.89bil).

This is why even when news emerged on punitive measures for the Libor rigging, very few people believed in its effectiveness.

MAS said it would make rigging key rates a criminal offence and bring supervision under its oversight.

To put this into process may take some time, while these market players exploit any loophole or weaknesses.

The fact that Asian banks are also involved in this Sibor rigging makes it even more unpalatable.

So far, Asian banks have remained strong amidst the financial crisis. Their reputation has remained largely untarnished, although most have been quite silent on their risk management.

Many of their Western counterparts have had to shed jobs massively and close down or downsize businesses, with some even having to accept taxpayers' money to survive.

At the same time, banks in the West became embroiled in the blame game, came under heavy fire from regulators and some even had to undergo a serious revamp of their business model.

Among the positive things happening among Asian banks is the recruitment of talent at a time of major job cuts in the Western banking sector.

But even that little positive aspect is going to be drowned by accusations of the Sibor rigging.

Manipulation of interest rates is a serious offence. Resulting from such collusion, some disruption may be seen in market movements, which may give rise to uncertainties.

Plain Speaking - By Yap Leng Kuen

Columnist Yap Leng Kuen reckons it is not always true that once bitten, twice shy.

Related posts:
'The year of shame 2012' get any worse in 2013? 
The Libor fuss!
HSBC Bank fined $1.92 billion for money laundering
The rotten heart of capitalism: interest rate-fixing 

Views by market research analysts, would the Snake bite 2013?

The 12-year zodiac has turned from the last year dragon to Snake 2013. Would the snake bite as the snake's reputation might be? Remember 2001 was the year of the 9/11!

Welcome to Year of the Water Snake! Snake is the Yin to last year's Dragon Yang. That said, Snake does not settle for mediocrity, either. We're likely to see significant developments in the area of science and technology this year. Research and development are apt to flourish. This is a Water year as well, the element most closely associated with education and research, making 2013 a very special year for scientists and scholars. Snake is a great sign, a positive one, with energy that can help us face all of the challenges ahead of us. Let's take advantage of this vibrant influence to improve our lives -- and our world!

THE world markets have always been a subject of focus whenever a brand new year comes a-calling.

Will they perform well or are investors in for a tough time?

As usual, while some have looked to the study of feng shui to predict how markets will perform and react in this Year of the Water Snake, a few analysts and fund managers have mostly chosen to stick to regular facts and figures when giving their opinions.

Here are the views of some of them randomly selected by StarBizWeek.
VINCENT KHOO
Head of research
UOBKayHian Research

Do you believe in using feng shui to predict market movements?

For fundamental research, we do not take feng shui into consideration

What are your top picks in the Year of the Snake? Why?

The over-riding investment theme for the year's market is laggards. Market laggards dominate our “buy” list.

We also advocate three categories of stocks to focus on for timing purposes. These are stocks which are immediate “buys” such as high-yielding stocks including number forecast operators and construction stocks, noting that positive newsflows are already emerging, stocks to accumulate on slight weakness such as telecommunication stocks, and stocks to accumulate on deeper retreats, such as the perceived politically-linked stocks which feature exciting growth prospects

Our contrarian view includes being overweight on construction stocks.

What are some of your “predictions” for financial markets this year?

The local market has predictably fallen after a short year-start rally. We expect a significant retreat in small-mid caps after an impressive January-Effect' rally. We also expect market to dip further before elections, but downside is limited, and it should recover significantly thereafter.

THOMAS YONG
Chief executive officer
Fortress Capital Asset Management (M) Sdn Bhd

Do you believe in using feng shui to predict market movements?

We don't use feng shui in our work.

What are your top picks in the Year of the Snake? Why?

In Malaysia, our top picks are UMW Holdings Bhd and CIMB Group Holdings Bhd. Despite a return of 70% in the year of 2012, we think that the prospects for UMW continue to remain bright.

The automotive division has been performing well as its Toyota brand continues to gain market share, while the Perodua brand dominates the budget segment.

Earnings contribution from the oil and gas division has improved vastly and the earnings momentum is likely to pick up in coming years, buoyed by the potential of raising funds via an initial public offering.

In the near-term, weakening of the US dollar and Japanese yen arising from quantitative easing would also be favourable to UMW Holdings.

CIMB Holdings has been delivering consistent earnings but its share price has under-performed the market, due to political concerns in Malaysia.

The group actually derives about 40% of earnings outside Malaysia and the overseas earnings contribution is expected to increase further with the strategic regional expansion.

Besides positive enhancement of the CIMB brand, its recent acquisition of Royal Bank of Scotland investment banking operations has also provided CIMB Group with an established platform to compete internationally.

Notwithstanding the solid fundamentals of the two stocks, one need to be cautious in determining the entry level for the stocks in light of the recent market volatility on the back of election politics.

What are some of your “predictions” for financial markets this year?

As the US and Japan are expected to continue with quantitative easing, we expect interest rates to stay low for the year 2013, stoking asset inflation.

While alternative investment such as property has traditionally proven to be a good asset inflation play, the sector will likely face continued policy curbs.

Taken with sight of economy recovery led by China and the United States, we believe equity as an asset class provides a very attractive risk return potential.

HWANGDBS VICKERS RESEARCH
MALAYSIAN RESEARCH TEAM

Do you believe in using feng shui to predict market movements?

Feng shui is just an additional tool used to make certain predictions.

Our bread-and-butter research approach has always been fundamental analysis supported by technical analysis.

What are your top picks in the Year of the Snake? Why?

Against a turbulent market backdrop, the benchmark FBM KLCI could swing between 1,500 and 1,750 going forward, and probably settle at our fundamentally-driven end-2013 target of 1,690 (based on one-year forward P/E of 14 times.

Hence, investors should view any market dips as buying opportunities to ride on the subsequent recoveries.

The Year of the Snake may bring good luck to industries linked to earth, metal and water elements, such as property, construction, petroleum and banking.

By being defensive, investors are expected to flock to sectors or stocks that generate strong operating cash flows and pay appealing dividend yields such as Pos Malaysia, Maybank and KLCC Property, to name a few.

What are some of your “predictions” for financial markets this year?

On the global economic front, we should see continuous gradual recovery supported by an underlying positive mood.

The recurrence of an economic fallout in the United States or a financial blow out in eurozone can happen, which can then force a downward spiral in investors' confidence.

KALADHER GOVINDAN
TA Securities
Head of research

Do you believe in using fengshui beliefs to predict market movements?

I wish predicting market behaviour could be that easy. Feng shui or even the much older Indian version, Vastu, for that matter gives you a “common sense” perspective on how certain things should be done in harmony with nature to reap the maximum benefits for health and well being but it is not a single criterion that binds everything for success or wealth.

What are your top picks in the Year of the Snake? Why?

Sell-on-strength, especially overvalued defensive plays in the consumer, healthcare and telco sectors, and turn cash-heavy to accumulate high beta plays in domestic sectors, which are mainly related to construction, oil and gas and property sectors, in the first half of 20 13. The banking sector holds good buys based on their attractive valuation, still robust loan growth and bright chances of benefiting from ongoing domestic expansion .

What are some of your “predictions” for financial markets this year?

Issues in Europe will last longer. The structural flaws cannot be undone overnight but expect bouts of positive improvements to kick in the second half of 2 013 as fats are trimmed and jobs created. China could revive its domestic growth without stoking inflationary pressure but it can be a destabilising factor if its row with Japan escalates. The same applies to Iran and the West.

LIM TECK SENG
Deputy managing director
JF Apex Securities Bhd

Do you believe in using feng shui to predict market movements?

Not at all.

What are your top picks in the Year of the Snake? Why?

I prefer good value penny stocks because the capital appreciation of these stocks are much faster and larger, compared to bigger-cap stocks. Stocks are all about packaging, style and branding.

What are some of your “predictions” for financial markets this year?

Financial markets revolve around banking, wealth management and the economy.

It has nothing much to do with stock markets. The stock market is all about liquidity and cashflow.

If there is enough liquidity, cashflow and interest in the stock, the stock will run. Liquidity is the most crucial component to the stock market.

EDMUND THAM
Head of Research
Mercury Securities

Do you believe in using feng shui to predict market movements?

Some people may use it, but I personally do not use feng shui to predict the market.

What are your top picks in the Year of the Snake? Why?

Currently I'm looking at property and crude palm oil (CPO) stocks, for both value and dividend yield.

The prices of quite a number of them have come down recently. However, they have the potential to “come back” later in the year. CPO stocks would probably only come back later in the year if and when CPO prices recover.

Property players with projects in prime areas locally (Penang island, Klang Valley, Iskandar Region) and overseas stand to perform well.

CPO picks - IOI Corp Bhd, TDM Bhd, TH Plantations Bhd, Hap Seng Plantations Holdings Bhd.
Property picks - Glomac Bhd, Mah Sing Group Bhd, SP Setia Bhd, UOA Development Bhd.

What are some of your “predictions” for financial markets this year?

For the local market, less volatility could lead to a higher KLCI level, especially in the first half of 2013.

The cautious investor sentiment due to GE13 is likely to suppress market participation for Q1 and maybe Q2.

The Dow Jones is at quite a lofty level, and we're not sure if it can be sustained above the 14,000 points level.

By YVONNE TAN yvonne@thestar.com.my 

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‘The year of shame 2012’ get any worse in 2013?

THE year 2012 has been labelled “the year of shame'' for the banking industry.

It doesn't matter that such nasty name-calling refers more to the problems at British banks.

Whatever happens in London is bound to attract world interest as it is a major financial centre vying for top spot with New York.

When scandals fall in thick, the tarnish on the banks there becomes even more significant.

To make matters worse, it is now apparent that the Libor interest rate rigging problem is more widespread than originally thought.



Source: Accounting Degree.net (click to link and enlarge)

It was not just a case of a few bad apples causing the rot, said The Guardian.

The problem was cultural, the report said, implying that it would require a wide spectrum of action to overhaul mindsets and unhealthy practices, possibly from ground level.

This requires much work on an international platform as there is no knowing how far and deep the rot has spread.

No doubt, banks in London and New York are the major players in the financial industry, and the other smaller players are feeling the heat as the ripple effect wears on.

As arrests related to the Libor rigging are ongoing, reports liken the revelations and subsequent documentation to a “blizzard.''

A blizzard is a severe snowstorm that often affects visibility, and points to very difficult weather conditions.

In banking and Libor rigging, in particular, this possibly refers to the layers of greed, conspiracy and corruption among the people responsible for conducting the trades.

Going into 2013, more arrests, fines and revelations are expected; the blizzard, therefore, is expected to be stronger.

In view of such a possible scenario, what are the central banks and other banks supposed to do to prevent any international backlash?

Not to underestimate the long-drawn effects of bank weakness, these external parties should quickly cooperate on an international basis to share information, iron out potential problems and try to prevent a big crisis from erupting.

With sound and consistent monitoring, a lot of negative effects can be pre-empted and, thus, avoided.

PLAIN SPEAKING By YAP LENG KUEN The Star

Associate editor Yap Leng Kuen wonders if it is too late to find a shield from blizzards.

Related posts:
The Libor fuss!
HSBC Bank fined $1.92 billion for money laundering


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