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Showing posts with label G20. Show all posts
Showing posts with label G20. Show all posts

Tuesday, 22 November 2022

APEC 2022: Boosting global governance


 

 

Xi's landmark South-East Asia trip expands partnerships

Two multilateral meetings, close to 20 bilateral talks and a sit-down with United States President Joe Biden – President Xi Jinping’s six-day trip to South-East Asia has charted the way for global governance, expanded China’s global partnerships and steadied ties between the world’s two largest economies.

Xi travelled to Bali, Indonesia, from Monday to Thursday for the G20 Summit before attending the 29th Apec Economic Leaders’ Meeting in Bangkok and visiting Thailand – the first time he has attended the events in person in three years. Xi returned to China on Saturday evening.

The back-to-back meetings held by Asian countries took place amid spillover from the Ukraine crisis, which fuelled global financial, energy and food crises, with some countries advocating division, confrontation and decoupling.

The world is again standing at a crossroads, and Asia has embraced a crucial moment in promoting global governance, State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi said after the conclusion of Xi’s trip.

Wang, who is also a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, said Xi’s proposals at the G20 Summit indicated that he has always kept the interests of developing nations in mind and maintained the outlook in his diplomatic activities that true development can only be attained with the common development of all countries.

At the summit, Xi said Beijing supports the African Union in joining the G20.

China’s support for multilateralism and its contribution to G20 cooperation is also evidenced in the fact that the 15 projects and proposals put forward by Beijing were included in the list of projects for pragmatic cooperation at the summit.

Bernard Dewit, chairman of the Brussels-based Belgian-Chinese Chamber of Commerce, said Xi’s proposals at the Apec meetings were not only inspiring for the Asia-Pacific region but also for other countries around the world, especially in Europe.

“At a moment when the COP 27 is closing, Xi insists that his country will push further for green and low-carbon development.

“Every government in the world should approve of his words when he says protecting the ecological environment and tackling environmental changes is the common challenge facing all humanity.”

Raymund Chao, chairman for the Asia-Pacific region and China of professional services provider PwC, said Xi’s written speech delivered to the Apec CEO Summit has boosted the confidence of business leaders in the Asia-Pacific region in responding to risks and turning crises into opportunities. — China Daily/ANN

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President Xi has met a number of foreign leaders and delivered important remarks while attending the G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia, showing charm of major-country diplomacy. Check out the graphic to learn more:
 

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Monday, 9 September 2013

Emerging economies in turmoil

The G20 Summit last week discussed a new phenomenon – economic turmoil beginning in some major developing countries – even as coordination to prevent future crises is still elusive.



WHAT a difference half a year makes. At the G20 Summit last week, attention turned to the weakening of the emerging economies.

This was a contrast to previous summits. Then, the major developing countries were seen as the drivers of global growth, as the developed countries’ economies were faltering.

For two years or so, the European crisis was the focus of anxiety. The American economy was also plagued with domestic problems. The economies of the developing world, including China, India, Brazil and Indonesia and other Asean countries, were the safety net keeping the global economy afloat.

But in its report for the G20 summit in St Petersburg, the IMF had to do an embarrassing about-turn. It reversed its previous theory that the emerging economies were on the fast-track and keeping the global growth going.

It now warned that the stagnation in these countries is now a drag on the global economy.

Developing countries’ leaders correctly point out that their economies have been victims to the developed countries’ monetary policies, especially the United States’ “quantitative easing” (QE), under which the Federal Reserve has been pumping US$85bil (RM283bil) a month into its banking system.

A lot of this ended up in developing countries’ equity and bond markets, as US investors searched for higher yields there, since the US interest rates have been kept near zero.

However, when the Fed chairman indicated the QE would be “tapering off” and long-term interest rates started rising in response, the capital invested in developing countries has been flowing back to the US.

Vulnerable emerging economies have been hard hit, and worse may yet come. Especially vulnerable are those which have a current account deficit, since they depend on capital inflows to fund these deficits.

The outflow of needed capital and the increased risk have caused their currencies and their stock markets to plunge. This in turn leads to more capital outflow, due to anticipation of further falls in equity prices and in the domestic currency itself. The currency depreciation also fuels inflation.

Thus, former stalwarts India, Indonesia, Brazil, South Africa, Turkey are now the victims of a vicious circle.

In Indonesia, the currency fell last week across the 11,000 rupiah to the dollar mark (it was 9,500 a year ago), as the July monthly trade deficit rose to US$2.3bil (RM7.6bil) and the annual inflation rate hit 8.8% in August.

In India, the currency fell to 68 rupee to the dollar (from 56 a year ago) before recovering to 65 rupee after a well-received inaugural media conference by the new Central Bank Governor last Thursday.

India’s current account balance is running at around US$90bil a year, making it very dependent on capital inflows.

In mid-August, the government introduced limited capital control measures including restricting citizens’ money outflows to US$75,000 a person (from US$200,000 previously) and restraining local companies’ investments abroad.

The current account deficits are also significant in South Africa (US$25 billion in latest 12 months), Brazil (US$78 billion) and Turkey (US$54 billion), making them vulnerable to the vagaries of capital flows.

The South African rand has fallen in value by 18%. President Jacob Zuma blamed the currency slide on the potential tapering of the US quantitative easing.

“Decisions taken countries based solely on their own national interest can have serious implications for other countries,” he justifiably complained.

Malaysia’s currency value has also dropped recently, but the country is not as vulnerable as it has been running a current account surplus (US$14.2bil in the 12 months to June). However, the trade surplus has not been as strong recently and there is always a danger of “contagion effect”, which we know is often not based on rationality.

Countries affected have a few policy tools to deal with the situation. One is to try to stabilise the currency through the Central Bank purchasing the local currency by selling the US dollar.

But this is expensive, and the country may draw down its reserves, especially if speculators keep betting that its currency will fall by more. This is the bitter lesson that Thailand and others learnt in the 1997 financial crisis.

Another policy measure is capital controls. Ideally this should be imposed to prevent inflows.

But most countries allow the inflows in the good times, and then when these suddenly turn into outflows, the boom-bust problem if laid bare.

Malaysia in 1998-99 imposed controls on outflows of both residents and foreigners, which was effective in stopping the crisis. It was heavily criticised at that time, but now even the International Monetary Fund is recommending capital controls if the situation is bad enough.

Ultimately there has to be international reforms to prevent excessive capital flows from the source countries, and developed countries have to be disciplined so that their economic policies do not have negative fallout effects on developing countries.

But we will have to wait for such useful international coordination on capital flows and economic policies to take place.

Contributed by Global Trends, Martin Khor

> The views expressed are entirely the writer’s own.

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