Southeast Asia's Boom Is a Bubble-Driven Illusion?

Since the Global Financial Crisis, Southeast Asia has been one of the world’s few bright spots for economic growth and investment returns. With its relatively young population of 600 million and its growing middle class, Southeast Asia has been the scene of a modern-day gold rush as international companies clamor to get a piece of the action. Unfortunately, my research has found that much of this region’s growth in recent years has been driven by ballooning credit and asset bubbles – a pattern that is also occurring in numerous emerging economies across the globe.

In the past few months, I have published reports about the growing bubbles in Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia, and I will use this report to explain the region’s economic bubble as a whole. My five Southeast Asian country reports have generated quite a bit of interest and controversy, and were read nearly 1.3 million times, and were publicly denied by the central banks of Singapore, Malaysia, and the Philippines.

Ultra-low interest rates in the U.S., Europe, and Japan, combined with the U.S. Federal Reserve’s $3 trillion-and-counting quantitative easing programs caused a $4 trillion torrent of speculative “hot money” to flow into emerging market investments from 2009 to 2013. A global carry trade arose in which investors borrowed significant sums of capital at low interest rates from the U.S. and Japan for the purpose of purchasing higher-yielding emerging market investments and earning the difference. The surging foreign demand for emerging market investments created bubbles in those assets, especially in bonds. The emerging markets bond bubble resulted in record low borrowing costs for developing nations’ governments and corporations, and helped to inflate dangerous credit and property bubbles across the emerging world.

The flow of hot money into Southeast Asia after the financial crisis caused the region’s currencies to rise strongly against the U.S. dollar, such as the Singapore dollar’s 22 percent increase, the Philippine peso and Malaysian ringgit’s 25 percent increase, the Thai baht and Vietnamese dong’s 30 percent increase, and the Indonesian’s rupiah’s 50 percent increase, which has been subsequently negated now that foreign capital has begun to flow out of Indonesia’s economy.

The post-Crisis bond bubble helped to reduce government bond yields in Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines (click links for charts), while foreign institutional holdings of many Asian sovereign bonds increased dramatically:



Foreign direct investment into several Southeast Asian countries - particularly Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia – immediately surged to new highs after the Global Financial Crisis.
Here’s the chart of Singapore’s FDI (net inflows, current dollars):



Malaysia’s FDI (net inflows, current dollars):



Indonesia’s FDI (net inflows, current dollars):



How Record Low Interest Rates Are Fueling The Bubble

The emerging markets bond bubble helped to push EM corporate and government borrowing costs to all-time lows, but there is another factor that is causing the inflation of bubbles in Southeast Asia: record low bank loan rates. Large corporations have a choice to borrow from either the bond market or directly from banks, and typically choose the option that provides the lowest borrowing costs.

Western benchmark interest rates – particularly the LIBOR or London Interbank Offered Rate – are used to price bank loans in numerous countries throughout the entire world, and most have been hovering just above zero percent in the five years since the Global Financial Crisis. Most Western economies were hit extremely hard in the financial crisis and have faced a constant threat of falling into a deflationary trap since then, which is why their benchmark interest rates have been at virtually zero. In the U.S. Federal Reserve’s case, it has been running what is known as ZIRP or zero-interest rate policy.

Here is the chart of the LIBOR interest rate:



Due to the fact that the West was the primary epicenter of the 2003 to 2007 bubble economy and ensuing Global Financial Crisis, emerging market economies were able to rebound more quickly and continue growing at a much greater rate. While many Southeast Asian economies have been growing at a 5 percent or greater annual rate since 2008, they have been able to borrow at record low Western interest rates such as those based on the LIBOR. LIBOR is used as the base rate for nearly two-thirds of all large-scale corporate borrowings in Asia. Western interest rates are too low relative to Southeast Asia’s economic growth and inflation rates, so a large-scale borrowing binge has been occurring as a side-effect. Southeast Asia’s credit bubble may balloon even larger because Western benchmark interest rates are likely to stay at very low levels for several more years.

Local benchmark interest rates in many Southeast Asian countries have hit record lows since 2008 as well. Local interest rates are used for approximately one-third of large-scale corporate loans in Asia, as well as most consumer, mortgage, and smaller business loans. Southeast Asian central banks have kept their benchmark interest rates low to stem export-harming currency appreciation that has resulted from capital inflows since the financial crisis.

The chart below is Singapore’s benchmark interest rate, or SIBOR, which is commonly used as a reference rate for loans throughout Southeast Asia:



Here is Malaysia’s bank lending rate chart:


The Philippines’ bank lending rate:


Indonesia’s benchmark interest rate:

Thailand's benchmark interest rate:


Southeast Asia’s Boom Is Driven By A Credit Bubble

Abnormally cheap credit conditions have led to the inflation of credit bubbles across Southeast Asia, which have been a significant driver of the region’s economic growth in recent years.

Singapore’s total outstanding private sector loans have soared by 133 percent since 2010:




Malaysia’s private sector loans have increased by over 80 percent since 2008:


The Philippines’ M3 money supply, a broad measure of total money and credit in the economy, has more than doubled since 2008, and sharply accelerated in 2013 as interest rates hit new lows:


Indonesia’s private sector loans have risen by nearly 50 percent in the past two years:


Thailand’s private sector loans have risen by over 50 percent since the start of 2010:


Though dangerous credit bubbles are inflating across Southeast Asia, some countries’ credit bubbles are driven primarily by consumer or household debt, while others are driven mainly by commercial sector borrowing, particularly for construction and property development. Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand’s credit bubbles have a significant household debt component as the chart below shows:

Denise Law, FT

Singapore’s household debt-to-GDP ratio recently hit nearly 75 percent, which is up from 55 percent in 2010 and 45 percent in 2005. Though Singapore’s total outstanding household debt has increased by 41 percent since 2010, the city-state’s household income and wages have increased by a mere 25 percent and 15 percent respectively.

Malaysia now has Southeast Asia’s highest household debt load after its household debt-to-GDP ratio hit a record 83 percent, which is up from 70 percent in 2009, and up from just 39 percent at the start of the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997. Malaysian household debt has grown by approximately 12 percent annually each year since 2008.

Thailand’s household debt-to-GDP ratio also hit a recent record of 77 percent, which is up from 55 percent in 2008, and just 45 percent a decade ago. Total lending to Thai households increased at a 17 percent annual rate from 2010 to 2012, while household credit provided by credit card, leasing and personal loan companies rose at an alarming 27 percent annual rate.

Property Bubbles Are Ballooning Across Southeast Asia 

Ultra-low interest rates in Southeast Asia have helped to inflate property bubbles throughout the region, which has also contributed to the staggering rise in household debt.

Singapore’s mortgage rates are based upon the SIBOR rate discussed earlier, which has been held at under one percent for over five years. Singapore’s property prices have roughly doubled since 2004, and are up by 60 percent since 2009 alone:


Source: GlobalPropertyGuide.com 

The average price of a new 1,000-square-foot condo has risen to $1 million to $1.2 million Singapore dollars ($799,000 to $965,638 U.S.), making the city-state the world’s third most expensive residential property market behind Canada and Hong Kong. A 2013 study by The Economist magazine showed that Singapore’s residential property prices are 57 percent overvalued based on its historic price-to-rent ratio. Singapore now ranks as one of the world’s ten most expensive cities to live.

Economic bubbles and the resulting false prosperity in other Asian countries have spilled over into Singapore as investors from across the region clamor to buy properties there. In 2013, 34 percent of foreign property-buyers in Singapore were from China, 32 percent were from Indonesia, and 13 percent were from Malaysia.

Total outstanding mortgages increased by 18 percent each year over the last three years, bringing total mortgage loans to 46 percent of Singapore’s GDP from 35 percent. Almost a third of Singapore’s mortgages are utilized for speculative property purchases rather than owner occupation. Singapore’s mortgage loan bubble is one of the primary reasons why the country’s household debt has been increasing at such a high rate in recent years.

Malaysian property prices have been increasing parabolically in recent years, as the chart below shows. Mortgage loans account for nearly half of all Malaysia’s household debt, and its rapid increase is the primary driver of the country’s household debt bubble.




Prices have nearly doubled in the past decade in certain Philippine property markets, such as the Makati Central Business District (CBD):



In the first six months of 2013, the average price of a 3-bedroom luxury condominium in Makati CBD rose by a frothy 12.92 percent (9.98 percent inflation-adjusted), after rising 5.6 percent in Q1 2013, 8 percent in Q4 and 8.3 percent in Q3 2012. The average price of a premium 3-bedroom condominium in Bonifacio Global City surged by 12.4 percent y-o-y, while secondary residential property prices in Rockwell Center rose by 10.6 percent y-o-y. Philippine outstanding mortgage loans are rising at an even faster rate than consumer credit, such as a 42 percent increase in 2012. The Philippines’ construction sector is expected to expand by double digits in 2014 and account for nearly half of economic growth thanks in large part to the country’s property development boom.

Though Indonesian property market data is spotty and difficult to source for all markets, Jakarta and Bali property prices are becoming frothy, especially at the higher end of the market. Jakarta condominium prices rose between 11 and 17 percent on average between the first half of 2012 and 2013, after rising by more than 50 percent since late 2008. Luxury real estate prices in Jakarta soared by 38 percent in 2012, while luxury properties in Bali rose by 20 percent – the strongest price increases of all global luxury housing markets.  A small two-room apartment on the outskirts of Jakarta can cost nearly $80,000 USD (RM253,373), making housing unaffordable for many ordinary Indonesians. From June 2012 to May 2013, outstanding loans for apartment purchases nearly doubled from IDR 6.56 trillion (USD $659.3 million) to IDR 11.42 trillion (USD $1.15 billion).

Thailand’s property bubble is centered primarily in the condo market, which is the most common type of dwelling for Bangkok residents, and is the speculative vehicle of choice for foreign investors who typically hail from Singapore and Hong Kong. According to Bank of Thailand, condo prices soared by 9.39 percent, while townhouses prices rose by 6.86 percent in Q1 2013, after rising by similar amounts for the past several years. The majority of new mortgages originated are concentrated at the lower end of the Thai housing market, and Bank of Thailand warned that low interest rate home loans could cause a property bubble.

Boonchai Bencharongkul, a wealthy Thai industrialist, said “I think the current situation is worrisome. As one of those who had such an experience, I can smell it now. People are rushing and competing to buy condos while more and more people are driving Ferraris. These are the same things we saw before the 1997 crisis occurred.”

Construction Bubbles Abound Across Southeast Asia

Low interest rates and soaring property prices create the perfect conditions for construction bubbles, which is what occurred in Ireland, Spain, the United States, and other countries from 2003 to 2007, and what has been occurring throughout Southeast Asia in recent years. Construction is a capital-intensive economic activity that benefits from cheap and easy credit, which is certainly the case in Southeast Asia. Southeast Asia’s construction boom has been focused on condominium and residential property development, hotels, resorts, casinos, malls, airports, infrastructure projects, and skyscrapers.

Construction has been the most significant contributor to Singapore’s economic growth since 2008, as the chart below shows:



Construction industry work permits rose to 306,500 in June 2013 from 180,000 at the end-2007, which was the peak of Singapore’s economic boom before the financial crisis hit. Singapore’s construction boom has been driving an over 18 percent annual increase in total outstanding building and construction loans in recent years. Bank loans for building and construction, and mortgages recently rose to 79 percent of Singapore’s GDP, which is up from 62 percent in 2010.

Casino and resort construction has become a strong driver of building activity ever since gambling became legal in Singapore in 2010. The Marina Bay Sands and Resorts World Sentosa opened in 2010 at a cost of over $10 billion. Singapore has also been aggressively upgrading and expanding its Changi International Airport, which has been a driver of construction activity. There is so much construction activity in Singapore that the country has 306,500 construction workers (compared to its 5.3 million population) from other Asian countries living there on work permits.

After growing by over 20 percent in 2012, Malaysia’s construction spending was expected to rise by 13 percent in 2013. Malaysia’s plan to build the tallest building in Southeast Asia, the 118-story Warisan Merdeka Tower, are a major red flag according to the Skyscraper Index, which posits that ambitious skyscraper projects are a common hallmark of economic bubbles.

In the Philippines, casinos, condominiums, and shopping malls have been driving construction activity. The Philippines now hosts 9 of the world’s 38 largest malls – beating even the U.S., China, and most other developed countries. The Philippines’ construction sector is expected to expand by double digits in 2014, and account for nearly half of the country’s economic growth.

Indonesia has been experiencing a construction boom in every sector, including hotels, condominiums, infrastructure, airports, and government buildings. At least 61 new hotels are confirmed to open in Jakarta by 2015. Indonesian construction contracts were estimated at more than $40 billion in 2013, up from $32.4 billion in 2012.

Thailand’s construction boom has been centered upon condominium development and infrastructure projects, which are funded by the government’s deficit spending. Construction spending is expected to grow by nearly 7 percent annually for the next five years.

Governments Are Borrowing To Create Economic Growth

The governments of Thailand and Malaysia have been taking advantage of low borrowing costs – courtesy of the emerging markets bond bubble – to finance deficit spending for the purpose of boosting economic growth.

Since 2010, Malaysia’s public debt-to-GDP ratio has been at all time highs of over 50 percent due to large fiscal deficits that were incurred when an aggressive stimulus package was launched to boost the country’s economy during the Global Financial Crisis. Malaysia now has the second highest public debt-to-GDP ratio among 13 emerging Asian countries according to a Bloomberg study. Malaysia’s high public debt burden led to a sovereign credit rating outlook downgrade by Fitch in July.

Malaysia’s Malaysia's government has been running a budget deficit since 1999:


Thailand’s government spending ramped up significantly in 2012 after the launch of a $2.5 billion first car tax rebate program that was fraught with problems as well as an unsuccessful rice subsidy scheme that lost the government 136 billion baht or $4.4 billion even though it was promoted as cost-neutral. Thailand’s government also plans to spend 2 trillion baht ($64 billion) – nearly one-fifth of the country’s GDP – by 2020 on growth-driving infrastructure projects, including a network of high-speed railway lines to connect the country’s four main regions with Bangkok. The interest alone on this new debt will cost another 3 trillion baht over the next five decades.

Thailand’s government spending is up by nearly 40 percent since 2008:

The country’s government has been running a budget deficit since 2008 to support its spending:



A wealthy Thai industrialist, Boonchai Bencharongkul, warned against excessive government spending, saying “This time, the nature of the crisis might be different. Last time it was the private sector that went bankrupt, but this time we might see the government collapse.” Sawasdi Horrungruang, founder of NTS Steel Group, cautioned that Thailand’s government should not borrow beyond its ability to service its debt, which will eventually become the burden of taxpayers.

How Singapore’s Financial Sector Is Driving The Bubble

Singapore has grown to become Southeast Asia’s banking and financial center, and the region’s rise – and inflating economic bubble – in recent years has helped the city-state to earn the nickname “The Switzerland of Asia.” Singapore’s financial sector is now six times larger than its economy, with local and foreign banks holding assets worth S$2.1 trillion (US$1.7 trillion). The Singaporean financial sector’s assets under management (AUM) have increased at a 9 percent annual rate from 2007 to 2012, but surged 22 percent in 2012. The primary reason for the country’s rapid AUM growth is its growing role as a banking hub in Southeast Asia, and it has been riding the coattails of the region’s economic bubble. A full 70 percent of assets managed in Singapore were invested in Asia in 2013, which is up from 60 percent in 2012. Singapore’s financial services industry grew 163% between 2008 and 2012.

Singapore’s banks have been contributing to the inflation of Southeast Asia’s economic bubble due to their use of the abnormally-low SIBOR as a reference rate for loans made throughout the region.

Here is the chart of the SIBOR interest rate as a reminder of how low it has been for the past half-decade:



To learn more about Singapore’s financial sector and its role in inflating Southeast Asia’s economic bubble, please read this section of my detailed report about Singapore’s bubble economy.

How China Is Driving Southeast Asia’s Bubble

Economic bubbles are not confined to Southeast Asia, unfortunately; since 2008, China’s economy has devolved into a massive economic bubble that has been contributing to Southeast Asia’s bubble.
Here are a few statistics that show how large China’s bubble has become:

• China’s total domestic credit more than doubled to $23 trillion from $9 trillion in 2008, which is equivalent to adding the entire U.S. commercial banking sector.
• Borrowing has risen as a share of China’s national income to more than 200 percent, from 135 percent in 2008.
• China’s credit growth rate is now faster than Japan’s before its 1990 bust and America’s before 2008, with half of that growth in the shadow-banking sector.

As mentioned at the beginning of this report, China’s government has encouraged the construction of countless cities and infrastructure projects to generate economic growth. Many of China’s cities, malls, and other buildings are still completely empty and unused even years after their completion, as these eerie, must-see satellite images show.

China has a classic property bubble that has resulted in soaring property prices in the past several years. A recent report showed that property prices increased 20 percent in Guangzhou and Shenzhen from a year earlier, and jumped 18 percent in Shanghai and 16 percent in Beijing.

China’s inflating economic bubble has generated an incredible amount wealth (albeit much of it temporary), a portion of which has flowed into Southeast Asia. Wealthy Chinese have been buying condominiums in desirable locations across Southeast Asia, and its notoriously free-spending gamblers are the primary reason for the casino building boom in numerous Southeast Asian countries, particularly in Singapore and the Philippines. Chinese companies have been investing and lending heavily in Southeast Asia, with a strong focus on the natural resources sector.

From 2002 to 2012, China’s bilateral trade with Southeast Asia increased 23.6 percent annually, and China is now Southeast Asia’s largest trade partner, while Southeast Asia is China’s third-largest trade partner.

Though several lengthy books can be written about China’s rise, economic bubble, and how it affects Southeast Asia, my goal is to succinctly show how dangerous China’s economic bubble has become and emphasize the fact that Southeast Asia’s economy has been benefiting from China’s false prosperity. The eventual popping of China’s bubble will send a devastating shockwave throughout Southeast Asia’s economy, which will contribute to the ending of the region’s bubble economy.

The Role Of Southeast Asia’s Frontier Economies

This report has focused primarily on the larger, more developed Southeast Asian countries because they have a far greater influence on the region’s economy compared to the “frontier” economies of Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, and Burma (Myanmar). The five largest Southeast Asian economies also have more advanced financial markets that are better integrated with global financial markets, and thus pose a greater systemic financial risk than the region’s frontier economies.

Southeast Asia’s frontier economies have been growing rapidly in recent years for many of the same reasons as their more developed neighbors, including:

• Rising trade with China
• Rising Chinese investment
• Increasing intraregional trade
• Loose global monetary conditions and “hot money”
• Higher commodities prices
• Credit and property bubbles

Vietnam experienced a property and credit bubble that popped several years ago and saddled the country’s banking system with bad loans. International realty firm CB Richard Ellis warned last year that Phnom Penh, Cambodia was experiencing a property bubble. Some local observers have suspected that property prices in Vientiane, Laos were in a bubble. Property prices in Yangon, Burma have exploded higher in recent years making commercial rents more expensive than in Manhattan.

While relevant data is few and far between, it is not unreasonable to believe that Southeast Asia’s frontier economies are experiencing froth or bubbles of their own for the same reasons as larger economies in the region. Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, and Burma are dangerously exposed to the eventual popping of China’s economic bubble as well as the popping of Southeast Asia’s overall bubble.

Cracks Are Beginning To Show

Southeast Asia’s financial markets were strong performers in late-2012 and early-2013 until news of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s QE taper plans surfaced in the Spring of 2013, causing many of these markets to fall sharply due to fears of reduced stimulus. This rout did not come as a surprise to me as I had been warning that hot money flows were inflating asset bubbles in emerging market countries, and I even published a report titled “All The Money We’re Pouring Into Emerging Markets Has Created A Massive Bubble” just a few months before these markets plunged. The sensitivity of emerging market asset prices and currencies to the U.S. Federal Reserve’s stimulus programs was an additional confirmation that the emerging markets bubble owed its existence largely to hot money flows. The ultimate ending of the Fed’s current “ QE3″ program – which many economists expect this year – is likely to put further pressure on emerging markets and contribute to the popping of their bubbles.

While most of Southeast Asia’s financial markets and currencies have been treading water since last Spring’s taper panic, Indonesia’s situation has continued to deteriorate, causing the rupiah currency to significantly weaken due to capital outflows. The rupiah is down by nearly 50 percent from its 2011 peak. Indonesia was hit harder by the taper panic than other Southeast Asian countries because of its worsening trade and current account deficits.

Thailand has been embroiled in political turmoil in recent months as opposition protestors have been demanding the resignation of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra. Opposition members claim that Yingluck is carrying on the same corrupt practices as her billionaire brother, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who was ousted in a military coup in 2006. The protests have harmed Thailand’s tourism industry, which is expected to slow 2014 economic growth to half of what it would have been without the demonstrations. Thailand’s stock market has fallen sharply in recent months as a result of the political strife.

How Southeast Asia’s Bubble Will Pop

Southeast Asia’s economic bubble will most likely pop when the bubbles in China and emerging markets pop and as global and local interest rates eventually rise, which are what inflated the region’s credit and asset bubbles in the first place. Southeast Asia’s bubble economy may continue to inflate for several more years if the U.S. Fed Funds Rate, LIBOR, and SIBOR continue to be held at such low levels.

I expect the ultimate popping of the emerging markets bubble to cause another crisis that is similar (though not identical in every technical sense) to the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, and there is a strong chance that it will be even worse this time due to the fact that more countries are involved (Latin America, China, and Africa), and because the global economy is in a much weaker state now than it was during the booming late-1990s.

I recommend taking the time to read my detailed reports on Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Indonesia to get a better understanding of Southeast Asia’s economic bubble.

In the coming months, I will be publishing more reports about bubbles that are developing around the entire world – most of which you probably never knew existed. Please follow me on Twitter, Google+ and like my Facebook page to keep up with the latest economic bubble news and my related commentary.

By Jesse Colombo, Forbes Contributor

I'm an economic analyst who is warning of dangerous post-2009 bubbles

 Related posts:
1. Asian central banks fix the mess created by their governments 

2. US Fed tapering of bond purchases, a new economic boom or bust cycles?

Asian central banks fix the mess created by their governments

Tokyo: Asia's central bankers are being forced to juggle their day jobs with what their governments have failed to do - steeling their economies for the hard times.

Critics say many governments have done too little to remove barriers to domestic and foreign business investment, cut red tape, upgrade infrastructure and develop deep, well-functioning financial markets when the region was flush with cheap money.

Now that economic rocks are emerging as the tide of the Fed's easy cash recedes, central banks are having to step in, detouring from their price and financial stability mandates, to shore up weak economies.

India and Indonesia were first in the firing line of investors last year when the Fed's plans to scale back its $85 billion in monthly cash injections started to take shape. Both took emergency steps, intervened in markets and raised interest rates to shore up battered currencies.

Since then the Fed has started winding down its stimulus in earnest, putting emerging markets on the back foot once again as investors look to target the most vulnerable economies.

Indonesian and Indian authorities have improved their defences against rapid outflows but their governments have failed to tackle supply bottlenecks and market rigidities that fuel inflation and limit room for policy manoeuvre, economists say. Both face national elections this year that could lead to populist measures and further delay reforms.

In Thailand, months of political turmoil have paralysed government, leaving the central bank as the mainstay of economic support.

"Government and monetary policies should be fairly balanced," says Rob Subbaraman, chief Asia economist at Nomura in Singapore.

"In India, and increasingly Thailand, the governments have not done their part. There's a risk Indonesia goes this way as the elections draw closer," said Subbaraman, who since mid-2013 has been warning of emerging Asia's growing exposure to market turmoil.

Even in Japan and China, with their strong and stable political leaderships, central banks appear to be doing most of heavy lifting.

In Japan, a blast of central bank money has boosted the economy and markets, but Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's economic reforms have disappointed.

China's central bank is trying to rein in an explosion of off-balance sheet and risky lending as cautious government regulators resist speedier financial reform that would force markets to price risk more realistically.

Asian central bankers rarely air their frustrations in public. India's former central bank governor Duvvuri Subbarao was an exception, regularly sparring with New Delhi over economic reforms and rates.

Sometimes though, their concerns do bubble to the surface.

After a series of rate hikes by Indonesia's central bank, an official there in October voiced his vexation that the government was not tackling the root cause of a widening trade and current account gap - its own spending.

"We need to address the cause of illness when running a fever," Dody Budi Waluyo, executive director of Bank Indonesia economic and monetary policy department told Reuters at the time. "The medicine should not only be Panadol to lower the fever."

NEW RISKS

In picking up the reins from government, the risk is that central banks will deliver neither the stability they seek, nor the economic support that is needed.

In Japan, for example, the concern is that optimism spurred by the Bank of Japan's massive cash injections will fade without reforms to unshackle the economy's untapped growth potential and help overcome the problems of a fast ageing society.

The Chinese central bank's attempts to curb risky lending by calibrating supply of money market funds have triggered repeated cash crunches that threaten to ignite market panic.

Indonesian and Indian central banks may be forced to tighten monetary policy more than their slowing economies would otherwise have warranted because of fragile market sentiment and sticky inflation that remains high even when growth cools.

In an ominous sign for India, foreign investors have been net sellers of the country's stocks this year.

Thailand's central bank is under pressure to fill the void left by stalled infrastructure spending and provide the struggling economy with stimulus, but is well aware of the risks.

"Maintaining monetary policy in an accommodative mode for a long period of time runs the risk of delays in reforms as they may seem less pressing and the risk of financial imbalances build up," Bank of Thailand spokeswoman Roong Mallikamas said.

In Japan, one concern is that without fundamental reforms promised as part of Abe's "Abenomics" revival plan, markets will reverse and Japan lurch back into its deflationary equilibrium or "stagflation" - a spell of tepid growth and rising prices. Japan Risk Forum, which groups risk managers from Japan's major financial institutions, sees nearly a 50-50 chance of that happening.

"We cannot rely solely on monetary policy forever and the time will come when the government's resolve will be tested by markets, likely around summer," said Hiroshi Watanabe, head of state-run lender JBIC and Japan's former top financial diplomat.

OWN MAKING

To be fair, central bankers may have contributed to their own predicament by keeping monetary policies too loose for too long after the global financial crisis, either because of political pressure or fear of more turmoil.

Nomura estimates that taken as a whole, real interest rates measured as a difference between official rates and inflation in Asia's 10 biggest economies excluding Japan were negative for more than half the time since 2008 - a recipe for rapid debt buildup and property and stock market bubbles. By contrast rates were negative for only 16 percent of the 1996-2007 period.

"By over accommodating the Fed's easing, central banks allowed asset price inflation to occur, causing an intoxicating party in full swing," said Thirachai Phuvanatnaranubala, former Thai finance minister and deputy central bank governor. "With tapering, the party is over. Some emerging markets will now have to deal with the bubbles that crept up while everybody dreamily enjoyed himself."

There are also some signs of change. India is embarking on an ambitious monetary policy overhaul that would make it harder for the government to lean on the central bank, while the government has curbed gold imports and secured $34 billion in overseas financing to try to close its current account deficit.

Indonesia's ban on ore exports drew fire, but it is a sign Jakarta at least recognises the need to reduce its reliance on raw commodities exports. It has also taken steps to shore up public finances.

Still, central bank efforts can easily unravel once elections are in motion, said Toru Nishihama, senior emerging markets economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute in Tokyo.

"As elections are looming in many emerging countries this year, no matter how central banks tighten policy to control inflation, their governments are tempted to loosen fiscal policy, offsetting central banks' efforts," Nishihama said.

Sources: Reuters

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1.  Challenging times for central banks all over the world to rejuvenate global economy
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Financial talent crunch worsen

PETALING JAYA: The talent crunch in the local financial services sector is expected to worsen in the coming years partly driven by the Gen Y segment that currently makes up about 25% of the workforce in the banking system.

Asian Institute of Finance (AIF) chief executive officer Dr Raymond Madden said that the talent shortage could be due to the lack of understanding on how to cope with the Gen Y group.

Madden:‘At the moment this group of people (Gen Y) makes up about 40% of the current workforce in Malaysia.

“Within the next eight to nine years, we expect the Gen Y workforce in the banking system to rise to about 50% from 25% currently, which means that almost half of the people working in banks will be Gen Y employees, namely those below 30 years of age.

“At the moment this group of people (Gen Y) makes up about 40% of the current workforce in Malaysia and in many Asean countries. This number is expected to increase to 75% within a relatively short span of time,’’ he told StarBiz.

According to the Financial Sector Blueprint published in 2011, the workforce number in the financial sector stood at 144,000. It is anticipated that over the next 10 years, the sector would require a workforce of about 200,000, an increase of 56,000 from the current 144,000 employees.

Madden said among the sectors in the financial services industry that were facing talent shortage was in Islamic finance, notably in the areas of syariah expertise.

Besides this, he added, the crucial areas in the banking system facing talent shortage were in credit and risk management, corporate finance, treasury and wealth management.

He said due to the expected rise of the Gen Y workforce in the financial services in the coming years, banks and other financial services sectors needed to have a better understanding and knowledge of this group.

This group, he said, was looking at what he termed as the three E’s – engage, enrich and empower. He described Gen Y as an impatient lot as they wanted to be prominent in the organisation and would join another organisation if they did not achieve their targets.

As this group was ambitious and wanted to climb up the career ladder as quick as possible unlike their older counterparts, hence employers needed to know how to deal effectively with the Gen Y segment.

Towards this end, Madden said AIF – through its four affiliate institutions – was working closely to beef up talent in the financial services sector.

The affiliates are Institute of Bankers Malaysia (IBBM), Islamic Banking and Finance Institute Malaysia (IBFIM), The Malaysian Insurance Institute (MII) and Securities Industries Development Corp (SIDC).

For example, he said the Financial Sector Talent Enrichment Programme (FSTEP), which is run by IBBM, had played an important role in training new graduates in the financial services industry.

FSTEP is an intensive-training programme that prepares trainees for the operational aspects of finance and banking.

AIF in collaboration with UK-based Ashbridge Business School carried out a survey this year, which among others, showed that 22% of Gen Y employees in Malaysia believed it was reasonable for them to be in a management role within six months of starting work at their respective organisations.

Commenting on the survey, he said there were also inter-generation gaps that existed in the financial services industry between the Gen Y and their older managers, adding that there was a clear difference in perception of Gen Y managers and Gen Ys themselves.

The survey polled 1,200 financial services professionals, including senior human resources personnel who actively manage Gen Ys in their respective organisations.

Contributed by by Daljit Dhesi - The Star/Asia News Network

New tax rate on property to keep away flippers

 

Profiteering nipped: Flip-happy property ‘investors’ – or rather, speculators – are not laughing now with the new stringent government measures to rein in excessive speculation.

Property prices have been spiralling and Budget 2014 introduced tough measures to cool prices down.

AHYAT Ishak was in the midst of selling off a property when Budget 2014 was tabled which saw hikes in the Real Property Gains Tax (RPGT).

It was higher and tighter than he expected. “Because of this announcement, I would have to make several different decisions. I bought that house less than three years ago.

“Previously, I would have been taxed 10% as RPGT, but with the recent announcement, I would need to fork out 30% of my profits for the RPGT.

“So right now, I am thinking that I should not sell it,” says the 30-something Ahyat, who has been investing in properties for the past 10 years and also runs workshops for wannabe property investors.

“If you have been strategic about investment, you would have known that the RPGT can go up anytime and you would have taken that into account in your investment plan. The worst strategy is when you have only one strategy,” he stresses.

Change of strategy: Property investor Ahyat is having second thoughts about selling a property he bought less than three years ago because of the higher RPGT. >

So he is not worried about hanging on a bit longer to the property that he had originally wanted to sell, because one of the rules he goes by is to make sure what he buys is an “investment-great asset”.

For him, this means two things – that the property is “tenant-able” and that it has good potential for capital appreciation.

As a player, he also makes sure he has the holding power to hang on to a property and service the loan.

“But it’s seen as uncool and yucky to talk to young investors about tenant-ability and capital appreciation. ‘Buying for rent’ is so old school to them. I’ve had people calling me a ‘sissy investor’ .

“Everyone was talking about ‘I buy, I get the keys, I flip’. How can that be sustainable?

“When I advocate responsible and sustainable investment, it is like a joke,” he says.

But those flip-happy property “investors” – or rather, speculators – are not laughing now with the new stringent government measures to rein in excessive speculation.

Other than the higher RPGT, the government is also prohibiting the developers interest-bearing scheme (DIBS), making developers spell out details of the house price and all the so-called “freebies” included, as well as making it a regulation that foreigners are only allowed to purchase properties that cost RM1mil and above.

Viewing the budget announcement as “very positive”, marketing and strategic consultant for developers Dr Daniele Gambero thinks this is what the market has been looking for.

“It is necessary to curb completely the investment of investors or speculators who are using property as if it is a forex or stock exchange market (where there is massive buying and selling in a short period).

“Property is not an asset for the short term. It is for the medium or long term, otherwise it becomes unhealthy and the market blows up,” he warns.

Gambero, who has been in the business for 15 years in Malaysia, says the kind of packaging housing developers have been offering over the past five years has been “ridiculous”.

“They are offering renovation packages, ‘free’ trips to, say, China and some even had a lucky draw for a Mercedez Benz.

“It’s ridiculous because these are actually not free. It is factored into the pricing and this is what has been pushing house prices up by a good 20%,” he says, stressing that developers are not angels and are merely responding to what the market is asking for.

He also takes to task the buyers for their “short-sightedness” in following their “emotions” instead of using practical and logical consideration when they buy property.

“If the value of the house is RM400,000 and these ‘free, free, not-so-free’ things bring the house price up to RM500,000, do they calculate how much this extra RM100,000 will cost them at the end of the loan tenure?

“At the end of the 35-year period, they might end up having paid RM180,000 extra in loan for these ‘free-free, not-so-free’ things the developer has thrown in to sweeten the deal. Don’t look at how much you are paying today but how much it will cost you in 20 to 30 years’ time,” he advises.

Besides, Gambero’s personal feeling is that most of the renovation offers built into the house price in fact ends up going down the drain, because about 40% to 50% of buyers end up having to renovate again because they want something that suits their personal taste.

One other thing that people should really sit up and take notice of is that with developers having to come clean with all the pricing, how will this impact on the amount of loan they can get to buy a property.

Both Ahyat and Gambero talk about the repercussions from banks.

“How is the banking industry going to react to this?

“When it is stripped bare and developers have to be transparent with details of the pricing, such as club membership, aircon, renovation and so on, the banks are going to be looking at that RM600,000 house and saying ‘Hey, this property’s value is actually RM500,000’ and that extra RM100,000 is just ‘fluff and whip cream’.

“Valuers from banks would give ‘zero’ value to those elaborate plaster ceilings, aircon and chandeliers. In the world of valuers, it is a big sin adding on all these add-ons.

“You can’t give loans on something that is inflated. You give loans based on the fundamental value,” says Ahyat, warning that the repercussions could be massive.

Concurring, Gambero says, the purchaser is at a “double losing end”.

“Say you bought the property for RM600,000 and a few years down the line you want to sell it for RM800,000, and find someone willing to pay that price.

“But when that person goes to the bank to ask for financing, the bank will look at the sales and purchase agreement and get their valuer to do a valuation and the valuer will give a value for the bricks but ‘not the plus, plus free-not-so-free’ package added in by the developer.

“And that real value of the house might only be RM700,000, so the bank will slash the margin of financing. So you might not be able to sell the house at RM800,000,” he says.

But will these new measures bring down the price of property?

Adrian Un, the founder and CEO of a property education arm, says the Budget announcement brought in the first wave and caught new young investors, aged 25 to 35, who came into the market with minimum downpayment, by shock.

The second wave, he believes, will come in when the details of the actual guidelines are spelt out.

“What has been announced is very general and the tip of the iceberg. Investors want to know in detail ‘if I do this or that, do I get a waiver’,” he says.

He thinks seasoned players will wait for a while and that after the Chinese New Year, when the news sinks in, they will continue to buy.

Un notes that developers with new launches planned will have to launch “no matter what” and they will now strategise on how to innovate and find new ways to entice people to buy.

“When they do away with the DIBS (a scheme where the developer bears the interest during the construction period and buyer pays nothing because that interest had already been factored into the price of the house), people might now be asking if it is worthwhile to buy the property.

“Developers might find a way to reimburse the buyer on the interest in a different way. For example, they may ask the customer to pay it first and then give a rebate or reimbursement every quarterly,” he says.

Un says it’s hard for house prices to come down.

“The cost of raw material has gone up, developers are going to have to pay GST from April 2015 (on supplies and material), the cost of labour has gone up, inflation is going to creep up with the introduction of GST and land cost is not getting any cheaper.”

Coming back to Ahyat, he says he doesn’t disagree that the property market is overvalued and that DIBS, among other things, had helped fuel speculation.

And he wonders too if other fiscal policies might be in the offing, like a hike in interest rates.

“We are in a low-interest environment right now and cheap credit fuels speculation.

“If there is a rise in interest rate, some say it would signal the bursting of the bubble because more people would die standing as their holding power would reduce significantly. And people can’t get loans or buy too if interest rates are too high.

“My question is, can Malaysia afford to let the development and construction industry contract and cool down? This is a very scary question to ask,” Ahyat notes.

Contributed by Shahanaaz Habib The Star

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No asset bubble, said Malaysian Central Bank governor

Malaysia has addressed many issues, risks 

Zeti:‘There is confidence in the financialsystem.’- EPA  

KUALA LUMPUR: There is no reason to believe that Malaysia has seen the formation of an asset bubble that is about to burst, as the country has addressed many of the issues and risks related to it, says Bank Negara governor Tan Sri Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz.

She said three series of macro prudential measures had been introduced this year to avoid the very risk of the formation of such a bubble asset.

She was responding to a question on whether Malaysia was experiencing an asset bubble that would burst if China’s economy tumbled and as global interest rates rose, as reported recently by the foreign media.

“Conditions between now and in 1997/1998 are different. We are now on a growth path,” she told a press conference in conjunction with the South East Asian Central Banks (Seacen) 30th Anniversary Conference on Greater Financial Integration and Financial Stability and launch of the Seacen Financial Stability Journal.

Zeti said domestic demand was driving Malaysia’s economic growth and the country was not at the epicentre of the recent global financial crisis.

“Our financial intermediaries remain resilient and the supply of credit was never disrupted,” she added.

She said financial intermediation was continuing and financial markets continued to function.

“There is confidence in the financial system. This is the result of the focus over the last decade on financial reforms that have strengthened the foundation of our financial system.

“We believe that credit growth has moderated to a sustainable pace that supports the growth of the economy. In this regard, we continue to monitor conditions,” Zeti added.

Meanwhile, in her opening address at the conference, Zeti said the modernisation of the Asian financial system had been accompanied by a significant strengthening of the regulatory and supervisory frameworks.

She said it had also been accompanied by improved financial safety nets, a more effective surveillance of financial stability risks and stronger legal underpinnings.

“These reforms supported the transition towards more market-oriented financial systems that are anchored in stronger institutions, risk management capacity and governance,” she added.

“Our financial institutions are supported by stronger financial buffers to withstand adverse developments and shocks.

“Significant strides also continue to be made in strengthening consumer protection frameworks, promoting financial inclusion, and enhancing market discipline,” she said.

She also said these developments continued to support the region through the recent episodes of turbulence in the global financial markets.

“The region has also made important strides in enhancing monetary and financial cooperation arrangements to address regional financial stability issues and global policy spillovers.

“Much has been accomplished in the areas of surveillance arrangements, financial safety nets and crisis prevention, management and resolution,” she added.

On the Asian financial integration model for the ten Asean economies, Zeti said it was focused on strengthening pre-conditions through collective capacity building to promote more open market access.

“It also focuses on progressively reducing barriers to facilitate cross-border trade, developing the market infrastructure and an enabling environment to promote the efficient and effective intermediation of cross-border financial flows.

“It also focuses on establishing appropriate safeguards for the stability of the financial system,” she added.

Meanwhile, Bank Negara and the Bank of Korea jointly announced the establishment of a bilateral local currency swap arrangement. It is designed to promote the use of local currencies for bilateral trade and strengthen financial cooperation between Malaysia and South Korea, Bank Negara said in a statement.

This arrangement allows for the exchange of local currencies between the two central banks of up to five trillion Korean won or RM15bil.

The effective period of the arrangement is three years, and could be extended by mutual agreement between the central banks. - Bernama

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Prevent ATM thieves and cyber crimes on the rise

Banks to arm machines with ink bombs to stain stolen notes

PETALING JAYA: Thieves who rob automated teller machines will be left with worthless pieces of paper if a Bank Negara proposal is put into place. Dye bombs are to be placed in the ATMs and if anyone tampers with the machines, the “bomb” goes off, leaving the notes stained in red and easily recognisable as stolen money.

Bank Negara, in its guidelines on Dye-Stained Banknotes dated Aug 26, is calling on both banks and Cash in Transit Companies to consider using the currency protection device (CPD) to deter ATM theft.

Local security company Extro Code Sdn Bhd demonstrated yesterday a CPD or dye pack which is already available in the market.

Its technical director Mohd Zaki Sulaiman said that once installed, the dye pack would be triggered when someone tries to break into the ATM.

“The device is like a smoke bomb which releases the ink onto the stacks of banknotes in the ATM,” he said.

Mohd Zaki said there’s no actual explosion but there is some heat when the CPD is triggered.“The actual triggering mechanism is a trade secret,” he added.

He said the ink called Disperse Red 9 was not harmful. He said the ink was imported but the actual CPD was developed and produced locally.

Mohd Zaki declined to reveal the cost of each dye pack and the installation cost. “Who pays for the device will depend on Bank Negara and the banks,” he said.

He said there are four ATM providers in the country but installing the dye-packs in the different machines should not be a problem.

The Bank Negara guidelines state that the CPD would emit a bright coloured dye by smoke, liquid or any other agent to stain the currency in the event ATMs are broken into.

This will enable authorities and the public to easily identify the defaced stolen currency and render them unfit for use.

The guidelines also sets out conditions under which these banknotes will be replaced. Among them:

• > The ink has to be indelible by water, fuel, gas, bleach and detergent.
• > It must be traceable to the ATM, to assist police investigations.
• > It must stain at least 10% of each bank note.
• > It can be detected and rejected by banknotes authentication machines used by banks such as Cash 

Deposit Machines. >It must be non-hazardous and non-toxic.

If banks retrieved the dye-stained currency, they can submit the banknotes to the central bank for assessment.
Tellers will also be trained to detect these banknotes.

The public and retailers will be advised not to accept dye-stained banknotes as they are likely to be stolen.

These measure, Bank Negara believes, will reduce ATM robberies.

In the United States, banks have dye bombs in vaults and any unauthorised person who tries to remove any money will trigger the bomb, leaving all the money – and the robber – stained in ink.

- Contributed by NEVILLE SPYKERMAN  neville@thestar.com.my

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Cyber crimes on the rise - millions of ringgit being lost annually to scams

 

Public awareness: (From left) Ambank deputy managing director Datuk Mohamed Azmi Mahmood, Khalid and AmIslamic Bank Berhad CEO Datuk Mahdi Morad at the launch of the Scam Alert campaign in Bukit Aman 

KUALA LUMPUR: Fraud and cyber crimes in the country have risen unchecked due to the lack of public awareness, while victims are hesitant to report the crime, the police said.

Millions of ringgit have been lost annually to crimes like sms scams and parcel scams, which have mostly gone unnoticed in the public eye.

In a bid to stop such crimes, the police has launched an awareness initiative on the various types of scams in the country.

Inspector-General of Police Tan Sri Khalid Abu Bakar said the initiative, under the National Blue Ocean Strategy, comprised cooperation with the Association of Banks in Malaysia (ABM) and the Association of Islamic Banking Institutions Malaysia (AIBIM).

The public would be informed and educated on the different types of fraud and cyber crime scams being used by today’s criminals.

“We are posting a list of the various methods and modus operandi used in these scams at our official police website at www.rmp.gov.my.

“This will be linked to the websites of all banks in the country so that anyone can easily access the information which will be regularly updated,” he said after launching the initiative at Bukit Aman yesterday.

Khalid said RM98.6mil in losses was recorded last year in cases involving cyber crimes, including Internet banking fraud as well as sms and parcel scams.

“So far this year, such losses have reached RM80.7mil, which shows that such cases and losses are increasing,” he said.

He added that losses to sms scams had jumped from RM5.8mil last year to RM39.2mil so far this year.

- The Star/Asia News Network