Malaysia, Asean to benefit most from China’s new economic strategies

Beijing's 14th five-year economic plan and 2035 goal promise a new era of development for China and the greater wealth for the world.

Momentous meeting: China’s top political advisory body wrapped up its annual session recently. — Xinhua

Review of China's achievements in 2020



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CHINA’s most important meetings of the year – “Two Sessions” – have unveiled Beijing’s medium- and long-term economic goals and strategies that experts believe will not only boost China’s quality development and modernisation but will also benefit the world, in particular Asean.

As Malaysia is part of the 10-nation Asean, China’s biggest trading partner, it will gain from Beijing’s strategies as long as Putrajaya continues to embrace foreign policies deemed as friendly – or at least non-toxic – towards Beijing.

The “Two Sessions” or Lianghui refers to the annual meetings of the National People’s Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC).

The NPC is the Parliament where laws and policies are adopted, while the CPPCC is the top political consultative body comprising the Communist Party of China (CPC) and other interest groups that provide policy input for the NPC.

At the start of the NPC in Beijing on March 5, Premier Li Keqiang, while unveiling the 14th five- year plan (2021-2025), announced that China had set an economic growth target of more than 6% for 2021 – with emphasis on high-quality development, green economy, modernisation and innovation.

The GDP of China, the first country to be hit by and recover from the Covid-19 pandemic, grew by only 2.3% in 2020. Still, China was the only major economy to post growth last year.

Li also announced that China – the world’s second largest economy in the world – wants to double the size of its economy to 202 trillion yuan (RM128 trillion) in 2035, from 102 trillion yuan (RM64.5 trillion) in 2020.

Over the next five years, Beijing will aim to keep unemployment low, strive for 7% annual growth in research and development spending and forge a new development pattern.

China also aims to become an advanced manufacturing powerhouse by 2025. This involves upgrading its manufacturing capabilities in rare earth, robotics, aircraft engines, new energy vehicles, high-end medical equipment and innovative medicine, aviation, high-speed rail and industrial applications of the BeiDou satellite system.

Ultimately, China wants to reduce reliance on foreign technologies and enhance competitiveness against the United States after being trapped in a long and acrimonious US-initiated trade war.

According to a Xinhua commentary, the CPC wants to lay the foundation to transform China into “a great modern socialist country that is prosperous, strong, democratic, culturally advanced, harmonious and beautiful” by the middle of the 21st century.

To double its GDP, China needs to achieve an average annual growth rate of 4.7-5.0% in the next 15 years, according to estimates of economists.

Prof Justin Lin Yifu, a top economist in planning Beijing’s poverty eradication programmes, projects that China will become a high-income nation by 2025.

The dean at the Institute of New Structural Economics of Peking University told Chinese newspaper Global Times that his optimistic prognosis “is based on China’s complete industrial chain, rich industrial range and advantages in new technologies, including 5G and artificial intelligence”.

Chen Fengying, a research fellow at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, told Global Times the five-year plan has taken into account risks and challenges, particularly those posed by the US and its allies that try to contain China’s rise and technology advancement.

Despite challenges ahead, Beijing has demonstrated that it is capable of achieving targets. A good example is shown in the eradication of extreme poverty in 2020, achieved on the back of economic disruption induced by Covid-19.

While China’s economic strategies aim primarily at developing domestic growth, they are seen as benefiting investors and foreign nations.

“Given the size of the Chinese economy and the important role it plays in the global economy, the 14th Plan also offers a bright spot for the global economy in this difficult time, ” Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute, told Global Times.

Indeed, China has contributed about 30% in global economic growth on average over the past 20 years. Within the next five to 10 years, China is expected to contribute 25-30% to global economic growth, says Gobal Times.

Christina Zhu, an economist at Moody’s Analytics, notes that Beijing plans to increase spending on fundamental research by 10.6% this year and encourages manufacturers to invest in research and development by offering greater tax benefits.

“China will further open up its domestic market to foreign businesses and investors. It has lifted restrictions in areas such as high-end manufacturing, new energy and service industries, and has committed to trimming down the negative list and providing a level playing field for foreign enterprises, ” she writes in a note.

Foreign trade stability and growth in foreign investment are critical to China’s ambition for greater connectivity with the world economy, she adds in the note also issued to Sunday Star.

Judging from what China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi has said, Malaysia and its Asean neighbours can expect to enjoy preferential treatment from China.

Last Sunday, Wang Yi told a press conference: “China is willing to work with Asean to build an even closer community with a shared future and another 30 years of even greater cooperation.

“In the new development stage, China is like an express train with greater driving force and load capacity. China welcomes all countries to get on board and move towards a future of shared prosperity.”

Locally, the Associated Chinese Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Malaysia (ACCCIM) sees Asean becoming a strong beneficiary of Beijing’s economic plan and goals.

“With China regaining its strong growth momentum in 2021, its economic strategies will help to support Malaysia and Asean’s economic recovery from the pandemic, ” says Tan Sri Ter Leong Yap, president of ACCCIM.

The trade group sees China as intensifying external connectivity via the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) of President Xi Jinping to accelerate China’s involvement in international trade.

Touching on Malaysia, ACCCIM notes that China has become Malaysia’s largest trading partner for the 12th consecutive year in 2020, with total trade valued at RM329.8bil or 18.6% of Malaysia’s total trade. Exports to China accounted for 16.2% while imports from China stood at 21.5%.

In 2020, China’s investment in Malaysia jumped 43.8% to RM5.8bil to become Malaysia’s sixth largest foreign investor.

“China’s long-term sustainable economic growth and greater emphasis on quality and technology-driven investment will open up more trade and investment cooperation in the areas that can help Malaysia’s industrial development.

“China’s signature BRI can continue to be a catalyst to spur more China investment to Malaysia and Asean, ” Ter tells Sunday Star.

The growing influence of China on the global stage will boost China-Asean economic cooperation, which can be further cemented by the signing of the 15-member Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), he adds.

Malaysia’s development focus on IR 4.0, digitalisation, 5-G technology, e-commerce, green investment, renewable energy, electric cars and smart transport infrastructure also means that both nations can work together to foster win-win deals.

Ter opines: “Malaysia can learn a lot from China in high technology, digitalisation, agri-tech and the building of smart and eco-industrial parks.

“We hope that the Prime Minister’s planned visit to China could further strengthen bilateral relations, taking it to a new level of win-win partnership. Both countries have come a long way in deepening trade and investment flows, enhanced connectivity and people-people exchange.”

For Prof Datuk Dr Chin Yew Sin, China’s BRI strategy under its 14th five-year plan could help Beijing achieve its economic targets.

“Between 2013 and 2019, China had signed with 138 counties, including Asean countries, for a total of 790 BRI projects. These overseas BRI projects undertaken by China will help spur the economic growth rate of China by about one per cent annually.

“The BRI projects implemented in Malaysia and other Asean countries will enhance the economic growth rates of these countries also, ” says Dr Chin, adviser for the Global One Belt One Road Association (Asia Pacific Region).

Dr Chin believes China’s demand for Asean’s natural produces and manufactured products will be even greater when it overtakes the US to become the largest economy in the world before 2035.

“By then, Malaysia will be able to export more of its electrical and electronic products, palm oil, rubber, oil and gas, timber products and others to China due to a higher demand of these goods.

“In addition, Malaysia will be able to attract more direct investments from China because of its long-standing good relationship with China, ” he adds.

Malaysia was the first Asean country to establish diplomatic ties with China in 1974 and Beijing has never failed to repeat its gratitude to Malaysian leaders at meetings, Dr Chin notes.

Datuk Keith Li, a mainland Chinese business leader in Malaysia, shares the views of his Malaysian counterparts.

“China will definitely focus more on the Asean market since the bloc is China’s biggest trading partner amid the pandemic. Moreover, China’s current ties with the US, Europe and Australia are tense, ” says Li, president of the China Entrepreneurs’ Association in Malaysia.

He adds: “There will be more to be done when the RCEP is implemented. China is expected to help Malaysia build a high-speed railway, an essential link with other Asean countries” Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand and Singapore. This will also facilitate China to enhance economic cooperation with Asean in tourism, trade, logistics and communication.”

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China Constitutional change accords with times

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Western system not reference for China’s Constitutional change

The ongoing annual session of the 13th National People's Congress adopted an amendment to China's Constitution with an overwhelming majority on Sunday, which sets the guiding role of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era in the country's political and social life. The most watched parts of the amendment include adding the clause that the leadership of the Communist Party of China (CPC) is the defining feature of socialism with Chinese characteristics, removing the term limits on the Chinese president and vice president, and listing the supervisory commissions as a new type of State organ in the Constitution.

Some Westerners used to intervene in China's major decisions. This time Western opinion basically held that the Constitutional change was China's internal matter. Yet there are still some in the West that are keen on grabbing attention by comparing the amendment to Western political systems.

But they have evaded two facts. First, in this juncture China faces a series of major challenges regarding its reform in and outside the country, which demands the Constitution be revised in accordance with the times. Major countries now are mobilizing their political resources to strengthen their decision-making capacity. The amendment is primarily driven by China's internal needs for development.

Second, Chinese people are deeply aware that their happy life must originate from solidarity and stability, and that this has to be guarded by the whole of society led by the CPC Central Committee. In these years we have seen the rise and decline of countries and particularly the harsh reality that the Western political system doesn't apply to developing countries and produces dreadful results.

Luckily China has maintained its steady rise for a long period. We are increasingly confident that the key to China's path lies in upholding strong Party leadership and firmly following the leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping at the core.

Upon its founding, the People's Republic of China largely copied the Soviet Union's socialist system. Since reform and opening-up, China has embarked on a socialist path with Chinese characteristics and become the second-largest economy. This shows political independence is key to how far China can go.

Most major phenomena facing China can't be explained by Western theories. China must find solutions with its own wisdom. Whether our practices are good should be assessed by whether they respond to and promote China's mission, and the actual results.

Despite the flood of information that poured into China after reform and opening-up, Chinese society has managed to deal with it and accumulated collective wisdom. In this process the leadership of the Party Central Committee has been instrumental. The Constitutional amendment comes at a good time as it consolidates the guiding thought, Party leadership, the leadership structure and the improved supervisory mechanism when China faces arduous tasks in the new era.

This is what Chinese people truly expect. Nonetheless some Westerners who fail to figure out Chinese people's opinion want to be the backseat driver. They should have been more objective and modest in the face of China's long history and great practice.

Source:Global Times

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China ready to move into the trade and world leadership vacuum created by the US

Cordial talks: Xi (left) and Li sharing a light moment during the opening session of the National People’s Congress (NPC) at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China. — Reuters

China sends out positive signals

CHINA has sent out stabilising messages to the world on its economic, investment and foreign policies since it convened its two most important annual political meetings (“two sessions”) early this month.

The on-going “two sessions” inevitably attract global attention because China’s policies for the year are announced by top leaders at these meetings held in the imposing Great Hall of The People, to the west of Tiananmen Square in Beijing.

For this year, it is even more crucial for other nations to scrutinise the policies of China at the sessions, held from March 3 to 15, as US President Donald Trump has injected too much uncertainty into the global dynamics.

The world is weighed down by anxiety as Trump, who took office in January, abandons globalisation and advocates the return of protectionism. Hence, nations are looking for leadership from the world’s second largest economy, according to analysts.

The two sessions or lianghui refer to the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) that began its session on March 3 and the annual National People’s Congress (NPC, or Parliament) that started on March 5. The CPPCC is China’s top political advisory body set up by the Communist Party of China (CPC) in 1949 after the CPC, led by Mao Zedong then, won the civil war.

Five years later, the legislative NPC was established.  

Steady economic growth

China is expected to grow steadily at 6.5% or higher this year as it continues its restructuring and reforms. Last year, the country achieved growth of 6.7%.

China’s Premier Li Keqiang announced on March 5 that the growth target for this year would be around 6.5%, while he addressed more than 3,000 legislators.

This slower growth target shows China is opting for a steady growth to reduce financial risk from excessive borrowing, according to economists.

Like the rest of the world, China expects to continue to experience global headwinds and uncertainties. Indeed, the premier warned of a far more complicated global picture ahead in light of the threat of protectionism.

Alfred Schipke, an economist from the International Monetary Fund, told the South China Morning Post: “Anything between 6-6.5% will be appropriate. The key is to have sustainable growth.”

For this year, China will have to give its leaders more room to push through some painful reforms to deal with a rapid build-up in debt and over-capacity.

Li said he would tackle state-owned “zombie enterprises” producing more coal and steel than needed. And nationwide pollution, caused largely by heavy industries, has to be addressed to bring back blue skies. His list of China’s difficulties also included laziness of some government officials. But will China’s economy continue to slide?

Global Times, the party mouthpiece of the CPC, has this to say in its frank editorial: “There are many problems in China’s economy at the moment. Given that it is now stable on the whole, we do not fear these problems as they will most likely turn into future opportunities for further development.”

The news portal stated that structural reforms in the Chinese economy had been “comprehensively addressed”.

Many enterprises that are heavy polluters have been shut down. The country no longer helps inefficient enterprises to stay afloat.

The current anti-corruption campaign has curbed improper spending to the extent that businesses in classy restaurants and retail sector are badly hit.

“China’s biggest accomplishments in the past years are that it did not stop to make adjustments in its economic transition. Instead, it adjusted itself while continuing to move forward. Now, society has fully adapted to the new normal in the country’s economy,” said Global Times.

Despite having to tackle its own economic problems, China has sent out a heartening message that it will continue to be the strong engine of global growth. Last year, China contributed about one-third of the world’s economic growth.

“China’s steady growth has brought in greater demand, investment and products to the world economy ... China will help improve global prosperity and regional infrastructure as it pushes its belt and road initiative,” said Wang Guoqing, spokesman for CPPCC on March 3.

More than 100 countries and organisations have joined the belt and road initiative and over 40 of them have cooperation pacts with China, added Wang.

The belt and road initiative, proposed by Xi in 2013, aims to build infrastructure and trade network to link Asia with Europe and Africa along ancient trade routes.

Since 2013, China has financed and gotten involved in projects on aviation, power, rail, road and telecommunications in participating belt-road countries. It is planning to host a belt and road Summit in May that could see China announcing more multi-billion dollar projects to benefit its trade partners and its own economy.

Opening up further

China had also told the world it would open up further and liberalise more sectors to promote trade and investment.

After the opening of the NPC session on March 5, core leader President Xi Jinping reiterated China’s commitment to “open up wider”.

“China will open up like never before. China’s opening door will not close,” said Xi in his report.

“China’s door will open wider, and China will keep working to be the most attractive destination for foreign investment.”

Xi made the remarks while joining in a panel discussion with lawmakers from Shanghai last Sunday, according to the official Xinhua News Agency.

Foreign firms will be able to get listed on China’s stock markets and issue bonds. They will also be allowed to participate in national science and technology projects.

Foreign firms will also be treated as domestic firms in license applications and government procurement, and will enjoy preferential policies like locals under the “Made in China 2025” initiative aimed at modernising the manufacturing sector.

Service industries, manufacturing and mining will be more open to foreign investment.

Ian Yoong, a former investment banker in Malaysia, opines that Xi’s vows to open up and liberalise sectors “shows that China is ready to take over the mantle from the US as the dominant superpower”.

He tells Sunday Star: “The key themes of President Xi and Premier Li’s speeches are globalisation and liberalisation of trade, totally countering President Trump’s plans for the US.

“This is a signal to the world that China is ready to move into the trade and political leadership vacuum to be created by the US.”

Easing tension in South China Sea

For South-East Asian nations, there was some relief when the Middle Kingdom appears to have softened its tone in South China Sea disputes.

In remarks made on March 3, Wang, the spokesman for the CPPCC placed emphasis on “navigational freedom”, which the US has often advocated.

“As a major trading nation and the biggest country along the South China Sea, China attaches more importance than any other country to navigational freedom and security in the South China Sea.”

This stance was starkly different from the hard tone of previous months, during which China warned the US and Japan to stay away from its “own sea”.

China’s recent naval force demonstrations in South China Sea had also unnerved Asean nations.

Observed Panos Mourdoukoutas, a contributor to Forbes magazine: “The shift in China’s tone in the South China Sea disputes comes as a relief for investors in Asian equities.”

But what is more comforting for Asean is that last Wednesday (March 8), China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi announced that the first draft of a code of conduct (COC) for behaviour in South China Sea disputes has been completed.

He told a press conference: “Tension in the waterway has eased notably.”

Since 2010, China and the 10-member of Asean have been trying to work out a set of rules aimed at avoiding conflicts among nations laying rival claims over the waters.

China, which lays sovereign claim to over 80% of the resource-rich South China Sea through which US$5tril (RM22tril) worth of trade passes every year, has often stated it prefers to resolve disputes via peaceful talks with rival claimants – the Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, Brunei and Taiwan.

Wang vowed China would not allow this new stability in South China Sea to be “disrupted and damaged” by outsiders.

There have been sporadic incidents between US and Chinese ships in the South China Sea. Late last year, a Chinese ship seized a US navy underwater drone off the Philippines, but later returned it.

Korean Peninsula crisis

At his press conference, China’s Foreign Minister also addressed the most pressing issue for the region now – the possibility of a war exploding at Northeast Asia.

North Korea recently launched four short-ranged ballistic missile in response to large-scale military drills held by the US and South Korea. It was reported that these launches were aimed at US military bases in Japan.

Wang proposed “double suspension” to defuse the crisis, urging North Korea to suspend its nuclear and missile activities while the United States and South Korea to cease their war games.

Describing the two parties as “two accelerating trains coming towards each other”, Wang said China was willing to be a “railway switchman” to switch the issue back to the right track.

But US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley promptly responded that the US must see “some sort of positive action” from North Korea, while Cho Tae-yul, South Korea’s UN ambassador, said: “This is not a time for us to talk about freezing or dialogue with North Korea.”

CPC’s Global Times, in its editorial, opined Wang’s solution is “the only way out” to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue peacefully.

The North Korean nuclear issue is not created by Pyongyang alone, it argued.

Although North Korea’s development of a nuclear programme is wrong, Washington and Seoul are the main forces that have pushed North Korea to this path, it added.

“Now, they want to stop Pyongyang from going ahead, while refusing to reduce the impetus they are giving to North Korea. When they failed to reach their goal, they blame China for not being cooperative enough,” said the editorial.

Despite the negative response to China’s proposal, Global Times opines Wang’s handling of the press conference “displays confidence of the country”.

By Ho Wah Foon The Star

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