Animal instincts, the zodiac way

 

https://mystar.pressreader.com/article/281479280535637

This Chinese New Year-inspired bucket list involves travelling the world to see sculptures or statues of all the 12 characters of the Chinese zodiac.

THE Chinese zodiac is represented by 12 characters. In order, the characters are: Rat, Ox, Tiger, Rabbit, Dragon, Snake, Horse, Goat, Monkey, Rooster, Dog and Pig.

On the first day of the Lunar New Year (also known as Chinese New Year here), which typically falls between late January and February, the new Chinese zodiac year begins. Today is the last day of the year for the Water Tiger; the Water Rabbit will begin its cycle tomorrow.

The Chinese zodiac predates China’s Qin Dynasty (221–207BC), and the cycle of the 12 creatures was established before or during the Eastern Han Dynasty, according to ancient documents found years ago.

Each zodiac character or animal (obviously, the dragon isn’t an animal but many centuries ago, people believed in its existence on Earth) has its own unique traits. These traits are then said to be an indication of what the year will be like. For example, the rabbit is the symbol of longevity, peace, and prosperity in Chinese culture, so 2023 is predicted to be a year of hope for many.

Of course, there is no real science behind all these narratives, so many people don’t really believe in the predictions, or just take them with a pinch of salt.

By now, you have probably seen a handful of stories which recommend destinations you should travel to in 2023 based on your Chinese zodiac sign. Do remember that most of these are just articles written in jest, and should not be taken too seriously.

However, if you do wish to add some elements of the Chinese zodiac into your travel, here are some places around the world you can visit that feature sculptures or statues of the animals.

RABBIT

Locations: Japan (Miyazaki and Kyoto), Wales (Lland-udno), Germany (Friedrichshafen)

 

 

The Rabbit is the fourth animal in the Chinese zodiac and this year is its time to shine. In Friedrichshafen, a city in south Germany, there is a fountain featuring bronze sculptures of animals created by German sculptor Gernot Rumpf.

The fountain, Buchhornbrunnen, is said to be one of the city’s main tourist attractions, alongside the Zeppelin airship, which was founded there. The sculptures around the fountain feature funny-looking animals, including the water-spouting female bunny (pic) with a braid. It is said that Rumpf commonly adds braids to his sculptures of female animals.

In Japan, there are several locations in which you can find rabbit statues.

In Miyazaki Prefecture on Kyushu island, there is a stone rabbit statue in the Udo Shrine, which is located in the Nichinan coast. Don’t be surprised to find many coins scattered around the statue as most visitors will place them there. They will also touch or rub the rabbit’s head, as they believe that this will bring them good luck.

Meanwhile, in Kyoto there is a pair of black and white rabbit statues located within the Okazaki Shrine. Visitors who come here, especially those wishing to conceive, will splash the black rabbit’s tummy with water for good luck.

In northern Wales, there is a town called Llandudno where you can find a huge wooden statue of a rabbit. It is actually the White Rabbit from Alice In Wonderland, Lewis Carroll’s famous novel. It is said that Carroll (whose real name was Charles Dodgson) based the “Alice” character on a real-life girl named Alice Liddell. The Dodgsons and Liddells were close family friends, so one summer, Charles reportedly joined Alice and her family to their summer holiday home in Llandudno.

It is speculated that Charles was inspired by Alice and her many adventures in Llandudno. Even though there are no official documents to prove this, the White Rabbit statue was put up by the local council in 1933 to support

this speculation. Visitors can also find other statues and Alice In Wonderlandthemed trails in town.

RAT

Location: Malaysia (Penang)

Located in Ayer Itam, Penang, the Kek Lok Si Temple is the largest Buddhist temple in Malaysia. The temple is a significant place of pilgrimage for Buddhists here, as well as those from neighbouring countries including Singapore, Thailand, Hong Kong and the Philippines. The complete temple complex was constructed between 1890 and 1930 thanks to an idea from the abbot at the time, Beow Lean.

Somewhere in the temple grounds, you can find a large statue of the Rat, which actually looks kind of cute.

OX

Location: Hong Kong

In Hong Kong, the Wong Tai Sin Temple is not just a well-known Taoist temple but a popular tourist attraction too. It honours Wong Tai Sin, a Taoist deity known in several regions including Hong Kong as a great healer. The temple receives millions of worshippers and visitors each year as supposedly it is the best place to go to get your wishes and prayers granted, through the ancient practice of fortune telling or “kau chim”.

Once you’re done with the kau chim, take a walk around the temple to search for a statue of the human-bodied Ox holding a large sword.

TIGER

Location: Norway (Oslo)

In Oslo city, the capital of Norway, one of the first things you will see upon arrival at the train station is the statue of a tiger. Yes, this tiger at the Oslo Central Station is definitely popular not just with international tourists but with locals too.

The statue was gifted to the city by a property management company called Eiendomsspar in 2000, when Oslo celebrated its 1,000th year. The local council had requested for a tiger sculpture as the city’s nickname is “Tigerstaden”, or Tiger City.

The 4.5m-tall bronze sculpture was created by artist Elena Engelsen.

DRAGON

Location: Thailand (Nakhon Pathom province)

Wat Sam Phran in Thailand is one of those handful of amazing places of worship that you just have to visit. Located about 40km from Bangkok, in the Nakhon Pathom province, the temple is famous for the majestic red and green dragon sculpture that wraps around the building’s 80m-high cylindrical edifice.

Oh, and the edifice is pink. The temple has been around since the 1980s, and is sometimes referred to as the “Dragon Temple”.

SNAKE

Location: Thailand (Ratchaburi and Bueng Kan provinces)

Also in Thailand are two places where you can find snake statues. One is in the Khao Ngu Stone Park in Ratchaburi province. Khao Ngu means “snake mountain” in Thai, so you can pretty much figure out what you can find in abundance here. In fact, as you arrive at the park, you will walk past a large cobra statue that doubles as a water fountain.

Meanwhile, in Bueng Kan, you won’t just find a statue of a snake, but a whole cave that resembles a snake! The Phu Langka National Park, which lies in the Bueng Khong Long district, is home to the Naka Cave (also known as the Naga Cave). Naka is “snake” in Thai and it refers to the texture of some of the stones nearby, which resemble the scaly skin of a snake.

HORSE

Location: Spain (Barcelona)

At the Lluis Companys Olympic Stadium in Barcelona, Spain, you can find two bronze sculptures of a chariot being pulled by horses, made by artist Pablo Gargallo.

You can also find a similar statue at the 12ha Can Drago park. In fact, you can find many beautiful horse sculptures and statues in Barcelona and other major cities in Spain. The country has a long history in equestrian, and horses are considered an important part of the Spanish culture.

Some of the statues in Barcelona were commissioned for the Barcelona International Exposition in 1929, and the Summer Olympics in 1992.

There’s also a funny-looking black horse statue at the airport, and another one upon which Raimundo Berengario III the Great, once the count of Barcelona and other regions, rides.

GOAT

Location: Republic of Ireland (County Kerry)

Ever imagined seeing a statue of a goat wearing a crown? Well, you can if you visited a little place called Killorglin Town in County Kerry, Ireland. 

 This statue of a male goat, which is also known as a puck (the statue is nicknamed “King Puck” as the goat is wearing a crown), is the symbol of one of Ireland’s oldest festivals, the Puck Fair.

The celebration begins on Aug 10 each year, and lasts for three days. During Puck Fair, a wild puck is captured and crowned the “king of the town” for a whole three days before he is returned to his regular life in the hills. The four-legged king is brought to the town square where he is crowned by the “queen”, which, surprisingly (or maybe not) is a local girl and not a female goat.

The king is then put on his “throne”, which is basically a cage placed on a raised platform so that he can see what his “subjects” are doing at all times. Or at least for the duration of his reign.

At the end of Puck Fair, the goat is relieved of all his kingly duties, and released back into the wild.

Though this story seems unlikely, it is actually true. We definitely recommend visiting Killorglin Town in August just for the Puck Fair.

Monkey

Location: Indonesia (Bali)

Folks who have been to Bali would have probably visited the Sacred Monkey Forest Sanctuary or Mandala Suci Wenara Wana in Ubud, home to more than 1,000 long-tailed macaques.

Commonly known to tourists as the Ubud Monkey Forest, the place is the native habitat of these macaques, which are revered by the locals. There are three temples in the sanctuary: Dalem Agung Padangtegal, Holy Spring, and Prajapati.

On each of the temples you can find several statues and sculptures of monkeys, some of which symbolise ancient stories and myths.

Look for the three monkeys holding these poses – see no evil, hear no evil and speak no evil!

Rooster

Location: Turkiye (Denizli)

In Turkiye, there is a breed of rooster called the Denizli that is native to ... the city of Denizli. This rooster is known for its beautiful colourful feathers as well as its distinct crowing. It has been associated with the city since the Ottoman times and is regarded as a symbol of Denizli.

Naturally, this is also where you can find many statues and sculptures of the fowl around the city. Among the more popular ones are the glass statue (said to be the largest glass statue of a rooster in Turkiye) that’s located in the town square, and the 27m-tall iron statue situated on a hill. In 2019, the statue was still under construction and so far there has not been an update on whether it is finished or not.

However, a local report states that authorities are hoping for it to be included in the Guinness Book of World Records for being the largest statue of a ... rooster. Good luck, Denizli!

Dog

Location: Japan (Tokyo)

You have probably heard or read of the story of Hachiko, the incredibly loyal Japanese Akita who waited at the train station for nine years for his owner to return.

Or maybe you saw the heartbreaking movie depicting this story starring Hollywood actor Richard Gere. 

 As the story goes, Hachiko would wait for his owner Hidesaburo Ueno to come home from work every day at Tokyo’s Shibuya Station. After Hidesaburo’s death, Hachiko continues to wait for him at the station, probably wondering what’s taking the guy so long to come home. Local commuters began to realise this, and started caring for Hachiko, but he refused to be taken in by anyone.

After nine years of living on the streets, Hachiko, too, dies.

In April 1934, a bronze statue in Hachiko’s likeness was placed permanently at Shibuya Station. But during World War II the statue was seized by the military to be repurposed – possibly melted and turned into a weapon.

A new statue was then made in 1948 by Takeshi Ando, the son of the original sculpture, Teru Ando. This statue remains at Shibuya Station to this day, and is in fact one of the top “meeting spots” in the city.

For those who are looking for more Hachiko adventure, head to the Odate Station in Odate City, Akita Prefecture, where another Hachiko statue (created in 1932) can be found. Odate is said to be Hachiko’s “hometown”.

In 2004, a separate Hachiko statue was created and placed in front of the Akita Dog Museum in Odate.

Pig

Location: Italy (Florence)

Il Porcellino, or “piglet” in Italian, is a bronze fountain of a boar in Florence, Italy that was sculpted in 1634. It is said that traditionally, visitors who wish to return to Florence or who are just looking for a bit of luck would rub the boar’s snout. Because of this, the original boar sculpture was moved to the Bardini Museum in 1998 to preserve it, and replaced with an identical bronze recast at the original site, which is the Piazza del Mercato Nuovo (the New Market) in Florence.

In addition to rubbing the snout, it is also customary to put a coin in the boar’s mouth. If the coin falls under the fence, you will have good luck, but if it falls outside of it, you should be wary of your surroundings. 

- The Star Malaysia21 Jan 2023 By CASSANDRA VICTOR and MELODY L. GOH lifestyle@thestar.com.my

Photo: MUMMELGRUMMEL/ Wikimedia Commons

https://mystar.pressreader.com/article/281479280535637

 

XI Jinping CNY MESSAGES 

 

We must let the elderly live a happy and good life at their old age. Respecting and caring for the aged is one of the virtues of the Chinese. Whether a society is happy depends very much on whether the elderly are happy." Wise CNY words from President Xi Jinping.👍👍👍

 

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Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's Malaysia Madani similar to Islam Hadhari

 

  Madani – a humane concept

PUTRAJAYA: A country that believes in humanity and values like fair, just and effective governance – that is the Malaysia that Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim envisions.

Calling it the Malaysia Madani concept, the Prime Minister said it was to ensure an equitable economy as well as good governance where leakages are prevented and public funds are prudently and justifiably spent.

Anwar said he did not intend to introduce a new vision or build a new “monument”, but the Malaysia Madani concept would be for leaders and the people to realise their responsibility towards the country.

ALSO READ: Anwar: No more racist or unfair policies

“Our aim is not just to strengthen the economy but also to ensure that the core values of ethics and morality that are accepted and propagated by all religions are practised,” he said when launching the concept at the Putrajaya International Convention Centre yesterday. 

 “I have great confidence that, with cooperation between the political leadership and the civil service, Malaysia will be able to regain its good name on the global stage.

“We do not want scandals, problems or racial and religious disputes.“Malaysia must be known as a Madani nation that is prosperous, fair and rejects any form of cruelty towards any individual or race.

ALSO READ: A good concept, but it has to work, say Johor folk

“It must be a nation that is known for its renewed spirit,” he said when unveiling the Malaysia Madani concept.

Madani is an acronym for a policy that embraces six core values – keMampanan (Sustainability), KesejAhteraan (Prosperity), Daya Cipta (Innovation), hormAt (Respect), keyakiNan (Trust) and Ihsan (Compassion).

Anwar said the unity government’s plans took into account the global realities of today where there were uncertainties, complexities, contradictions and chaos.

He said the Madani concept was part of a strategic framework that was comprehensive and could absorb the changes in these post-normal times.

ALSO READ: Zahid: Efforts can take nation back to glory

“The time has come for us to stop measuring human progress and successes just on economic growth.

“Growth and development must be attained through a larger context, through the humane economy which prioritises the needs of the people, especially the poor and the marginalised.

“They must be released from the clutches of poverty in a capitalist system that breeds inequality in wealth and living standards,” the Prime Minister said.

He expressed confidence that a democratic market economy based on social justice could help achieve this goal.

The issue of a humane economy had been deliberated in his The Asian Renaissance book more than two decades ago.

“Fast forward to 2023, I believe the theme is still relevant and, in fact, imperative to achieve a sustainable economic growth that cares for the people and can save the country,” he said.

On governance, Anwar said that while each political bloc that had governed the country had its own strengths, it was more important to eliminate the weaknesses.

He said bad management and the enrichment of small groups were the biggest weaknesses.

“I am confident that if there is good governance, we will be able to tackle the economic storm with confidence,” he said, adding that one way to stop leakages and mismanagement was for ministers to review the Auditor-General’s Report and rectify issues.

“If the political leadership and civil servants work hand-in-hand, between RM5bil and RM6bil of public funds can be saved, just from the Auditor-General’s report alone,” he said.

To boost the economy, the system and laws of the country must be upheld, with no favouritism or discrimination.

“If the government machinery functions optimally, and we resolve the issue of governance, God willing, the wheels of the economy will turn faster. We will see better and greater growth,” he said.

Also present at the launch were Deputy Prime Ministers Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and Datuk Seri Fadillah Yusof, Cabinet ministers and senior civil servants. 

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When a catchy slogan brands a leader

 

PETALING JAYA: Prime ministers come and go. And so do the snappy slogans that come with each leader.

Taglines such as Wawasan 2020, 1Malaysia, Malaysia Prihatin, Keluarga Malaysia, and now Malaysia Madani are not just punchy but important to present a prime minister’s brand and mark their legacy.

ALSO READ: Madani – a humane concept

The slogans are used to identify a prime minister’s policies and political philosophy as well as encapsulate their image or brand, says National Council of Professors senior fellow Datuk Dr Jeniri Amir.

 “Every time a new prime minister comes along, he will come up with his own slogan,” he said.

So far, no prime minister has chosen to continue with his predecessors’ slogans.

The practice of having a slogan or brand for a prime minister began with Datuk Seri (now Tun) Dr Mahathir Mohamad when he launched his Wawasan 2020, which envisioned a Bangsa Malaysia (Malaysian nationality).

ALSO READ: Anwar: No more racist or unfair policies

His successor, Tun Abdullah Ahmad Badawi, had his Islam Hadhari, followed by Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s 1Malaysia.

Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin’s Malaysia Prihatin was the most recent, followed by Datuk Seri Ismail’s Sabri’s Keluarga Malaysia.

The latest – Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim’s Malaysia Madani – is very much on-brand with Anwar’s Islamic background, identity and philosophy.

ALSO READ: A good concept, but it has to work, say Johor folk

“Anwar has chosen a theme similar to that of the Islam Hadhari. Both have Islamic elements,” said Dr Jeniri.

He said Anwar’s challenge would be to realise his brand effectively, and he would need the media and his communication teams to play their roles well.

While taglines are an important political marketing tool, they also bring an extra burden on the public purse to promote them, said Universiti Malaya’s Prof Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi.

“For example, the Keluarga Malaysia slogan saw a lot of public spending to promote various related aspects throughout the tenure of the ninth prime minister’s (Ismail Sabri),” he said.

Awang Azman said slogans could leave a lasting and deep impression depending on the length of the prime minister’s tenure.

“Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad introduced the Wawasan 2020 concept in 1991. It left a deep impact because he was in power for a very long time, and it was even picked up by his successors to some extent,” he said.

Universiti Sains Malaysia professor of political sociology Prof Sivamurugan Pandian said the practice of using slogans was also done in other countries such as India and the United States.

“Slogans are important to set an agenda for any leadership, and the expectation is for others to react in order to understand the way forward, vision and mission through the tenure of any leadership.”

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Here's a diet to help you live a long life

 

The sooner one starts eating healthy, the better, but research shows that even making the appropriate dietary changes in one’s 80s can lead to a longer life. — dpa

 

Humans have sought the fountain of youth and long life for millennia.

For longevity at least, scientists think they’ve found a potent intervention: proper nutrition, which, in contrast to our genetic makeup and certain living conditions, is alterable.

And it appears that not only what and how much we eat is important, but also when.

In an article published in the journal Cell, gerontologists Professor Dr Valter Longo and Dr Rozalyn Anderson examine hundreds of ageing and nutrition studies on simple organisms, laboratory animals and humans, and combine them with their own studies to come up with a “longevity diet”.

Lovers of calorie bombs such as burgers, chips and cola, or comfort foods like white chocolate, will be disappointed.

The two experts link limited calorie intake and periodic fasting to a lower disease risk and longer life expectancy.

Their longevity diet calls for 45%-60% of calories from non-refined complex carbohydrates, 10%-15% from mostly plant-based proteins, and 25%-35% from mostly plant-based fats.

Translated into practical terms, this means: “Lots of legumes, whole grains and vegetables; some fish; no red meat or processed meat and very little white meat; low sugar and refined grains; good levels of nuts and olive oil, and some dark chocolate,” says Prof Longo.

While meat lovers may turn their noses up at the sound of the diet, his recommended “recipes for longevity” include couscous with mixed fish, tomatoes, almonds and garlic; Tuscan bread salad; and pasta with eggplant and tomato sauce topped with ricotta salata, which hardly sound unpalatable.

The longevity diet also calls for restricting eating to an 11-12 hour timeframe daily and a few yearly cycles of five-day fasting-mimicking diets – a low-calorie meal plan developed at the Longevity Institute that’s formulated to simulate the body’s fasting state.

Must be adapted

Prof Longo and Dr Anderson emphasise that their longevity diet should be adapted to individuals based on sex, age, lifestyle, health status and genetics,

This is as no diet is equally suited, say, to a physically fit 20-year-old and a 60-year-old with a metabolic disorder.

People over age 65 may need to increase protein intake to prevent frailty and diseases resulting from reduced bone or muscle mass, or low blood cell counts, they write.

According to German Institute of Human Nutrition Department of Nutrition and Gerontology head Dr Kristina Norman, modifications of this kind are very important.

“It’s often difficult in old age to ingest sufficient protein, too little of which can cause muscle loss and increase the risk of falling and breaking a bone.

“Eating somewhat more meat than generally recommended can therefore be advisable.”

She sees many parallels in the proposed diet with familiar dietary recommendations, e.g. those of the German Nutrition Society (DGE), as well as an eating plan aimed at healthy – and environmentally responsible – nutrition proposed by scientists some time ago.

“Contrary to popular belief, recommendations on healthy eating don’t change every few years – for the most part, they’re highly stable,” she notes.

“The Longo study can be regarded as old hat, but the matter has been reassessed and backed by stronger evidence.”

Never too late

In the view of Dr Bernhard Watzl, former head of Hamburg-based Max Rubner Institute’s Department of Physiology and Biochemistry of Nutrition, which advises Germany’s Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture on consumer health protection in the nutrition sector, the overarching finding in the Cell review is that the quantity and quality of nutrition are key to long life.

“It’s better to consume too few calories than too many,” he says, adding that “The more demands that are placed on a system, the greater the wear it’s subjected to.”

So it’s important, he says, to keep demands at low levels.

As regards fasting, Dr Watzl is less convinced by the available data than Prof Longo and Dr Anderson are.

“Fasting is only for people unable to limit their calorie intake,” he says.

In such people, temporary abstinence from food can help to resensitise certain receptors in the body.

While he stresses it’s never too late in life to start eating healthily, Dr Watzl says sooner is better than later when it comes to preventing diseases that develop gradually over decades.

Prof Longo cited a Norwegian study that found even 60- to 80-year-olds gained several years in life expectancy when they followed many of the recommendations that are also part of the longevity diet.

The biggest gains, according to the study, came from eating more legumes, whole grains and nuts, and less red and processed meat.

Dr Watzl sees the dietary trend towards more wholemeal bread and muesli positively, but says “too much cheese or sliced sausage is often put on the bread – or white bread is eaten.”

He’s also critical of heavily-processed foods, not only because of the additives, but also the quick nutrient availability, which he says overtaxes metabolism.

ALSO READ: Ultra-processed foods are bad for your mind, heart and life

To optimise their longevity diet, Prof Longo and Dr Anderson advise personalising it in consultation with a nutrition specialist.

They also recommend focusing on smaller, more tolerable changes, rather than large ones that cause major weight loss followed – when the diet is abandoned – by a rapid “yo-yo-like” regain of fat.

“We propose that the longevity diet would be a valuable complement to standard healthcare and that, taken as a preventative measure, it could aid in avoiding morbidity, sustaining health into advanced age,” they write. – By Gisela Gross/dpa 

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US the biggest obstructer of global recovery in 2023, Ballooning US debt a ticking time bomb for world economy

 

llustration: Chen Xia/Global Times

The IMF said in its latest staff report that after decades of increasing global economic integration, the world is facing the risk of fragmentation, which could reduce global economic output by up to 7 percent. And with the addition of technological "decoupling," the loss in output could reach 8 to 12 percent in some countries, it warned.

In addition to the COVID-19 pandemic, high inflation, geopolitical conflict, and regional economic uncertainty, among others, the IMF report actually points to one of the biggest worries for the global economy in 2023. At a time when the US push for the technological "decoupling" and abnormal transfer of industrial chains is "killing" globalization, it seems that fragmentation of the global supply chains and trade has become an inevitable trend, which is bound to seriously affect the global economic recovery.

The US is to blame for the current anti-globalization trend of the global economy. Over the years, the US has been trying to promote the returning of manufacturing jobs through various policies. During the process, these policies are gradually deviating from the principles and rules of free trade time and again as Washington increasingly doesn't care whether it hurts the interests of the rest of the world, such as requiring TSMC and South Korean chipmakers to shift production to the US.

For example, at the "relocation ceremony" of TSMC's first plant in Arizona last month, TSMC founder Morris Chang said that globalization and free trade are "almost dead," while US President Joe Biden claimed "American manufacturing is back" in his speech. This is perhaps the perfect manifestation of the US' disdain for globalization. 

Against this backdrop, there is an increasing tendency that factors determining global industrial chains and resource allocation are politicized, deviating from economic considerations. Some countries have a strong desire to strengthen their domestic industries and become wary of international cooperation, which may be the biggest crisis to globalization. 

By distorting and politicizing industrial policy, the US may be able to see a certain degree of manufacturing recovery in the short term, but in the long run, it will lead to a significant increase in the costs, creating unnecessary chaos in the global industrial chain. 

Moreover, with the excuse of improving the so-called supply chain security and resilience, the US has been seeking to isolate China from global supply chains, which is another important reason for the growing trend of industrial fragmentation. In the semiconductor sector, for example, the US has been hamstringing China with export bans for years, and it announced in October escalated measures to cut China off from certain semiconductor chips made anywhere in the world with US equipment. The US is also reportedly in discussions with Japan, the Netherlands and South Korea over restricting semiconductor exports to China.

The move affects not only China, but also the global semiconductor industrial chain, shattering the traditional consensus on the global division of labor that has developed over the past few decades. Everyone is a loser in the US-led "decoupling" drive, including American companies. The third quarter of last year alone saw more than $1.5 trillion wiped from the combined market value of American-listed chip businesses, according to an Economist report.

Indeed, the US is pursuing its global strategy aimed at containing China not just in the semiconductor sector, but also in such industries as photovoltaic and electric cars. By adopting various legislations targeting China, it has tried to wean its economy off or reduce its reliance on Chinese supply chains, so as to undermine China's economic momentum.

Yet, China's industrial chain and supply chain is an inseparable part of the world, also an important driving force of the global economy. It is widely expected that China's economic recovery will become a major source of optimism for the global economy in 2023. Washington's attempt to construct a global supply chain that excludes China and to contain China's rise will cause disruption to this chain and will have a major impact on the global economy and globalization, which is obviously not in line with the interests of most countries in the world, including the US. Global economic recovery needs China's supply chain. There is no substitute. If the US continues on the path of industrial fragmentation, it will be the number one obstructer of the global economic recovery. 

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Ballooning US debt a ticking time bomb for world economy

Illustration: Chen Xia/Global Times

The US policymakers seem to have steered the world's largest economy into unchartered territory, as it now faces multipronged challenges including persistently elevated inflation running at a 40-year high, a sputtering economy dragged down by a technical recession in the second quarter this year, and an enlarging federal debt which exceeded $31 trillion as of October 4 - a ticking time bomb for America and the world as well.

For the first time in history, the US' public debt outstanding has surpassed $31 trillion, data from the country's Treasury Department showed. A trillion dollars of debt was added in the past eight months alone, and it is close to reaching the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling that the US Congress set for the Biden administration's borrowing until early 2023. 

Since Barack Obama took office in January 2009, the US' aggregate borrowings have kept galloping, with the current reading of $31 trillion nearly tripling $10.6 trillion worth of debt in early 2009. When Donald Trump came to the White House in early 2017, he inherited $19.9 trillion debt. And, when Biden took office in January 2021, the federal debt was $27.8 trillion. It is widely expected that the US national debt will hit a minimum of $50 trillion by 2030, according to estimations by some American institutions. 

Like Japan, the US is increasingly becoming a heavily-indebted economy, with its national debt now accounting for approximately 140 percent of last year's GDP. Whether the US is going to face "two lost decades" of Japan-style anemic economic growth is unknown yet, but an incessantly bulging federal debt will definitely pose more problems for American policymakers, while chipping away at the US dollar's global reserve currency status, because a foundering US economy will inevitably reduce the importance of the greenback.

To make things worse, with inflation still running at more than 8 percent, the Federal Reserve has vowed to continue to raise interest rates in the coming months to tame stubborn price rises. Higher interest rates means that the US government will have to pay more for its huge borrowings, which raises questions about Washington's ability to service its debts, including the principal and increasingly larger interests.

As interest rates on US Treasury bonds rise, so will the federal government's borrowing costs. The US was able to borrow cheaply to respond to the COVID-19 pandemic because interest rates were at historically low in 2020. Now, interest rates on 20-year US Treasury bonds have grown to around 4 percent, meaning the US government will have to pay added interest costs of about $100 billion this year as the US central bank has raised rates from zero to 3-3.25 percent now. In May, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected the US' annual interest costs will reach $399 billion this year, which is forecast to surge to $1.2 trillion in 2032. 

The long-haul fiscal challenges facing the US are mounting. Since the 2008-09 global financial crisis, the US government has relied on quantitative easing (QE) monetary policy, through heavy borrowing from home and abroad, to maintain a relatively fast economic growth, in addition to maintain lavish spending on its military, medical care and other social welfare projects. However, the structural imbalance between spending and revenues that existed before the pandemic has been intensifying, causing American federal debt levels rapidly piling up.

If the US national debt exceeds $50 trillion, while its GDP struggles at around $25 trillion, then the world's largest economy will be truly thrust into a big trouble. US GDP this year is estimated to be flat against last year's figure. It may recede in 2023 and 2024, as the Fed's higher rates chip in, while Trump's tariffs war plus Biden's semiconductors tussle with China will further dim the US' economic prospects.

And, there will be fiercer and also uglier partisan fighting in Washington on congressional appropriations in the coming months, because the federal government will be constrained by the lawmakers and American public to borrow more to fund defense, infrastructure, education, medical care, elderly's pensions and other initiatives. For many years, US presidents, both Republican and Democratic parties, have avoided making hard choices about the budget, failing to put it on a sustainable path.

With a ballooning national debt and a struggling economy, the US policymakers will get to find that the global reserve currency of the dollar is set to erode, as the country's growing budget deficits will naturally raise concerns about the ability of Washington to pay back the debt. If the US government continues to sell more Treasury bonds or even parachuting printed money to American households and enterprises, investors will take caution and avoid buying the bonds. In the past several years, more central banks have begun to reduce their holdings of US dollar-denominated assets. 

Once their faith in buying the US Treasury bonds is undermined, or if the US government further bundles its policies to cause a fiscal default one day, more foreign countries will join the rush to de-dollarize by dumping the US assets.  

Is the Biden administration able to stop the US national debt from swelling? The chances are very slim. In 2021 and 2022, the US debt has expanded by more than $3.2 trillion under Biden's watch. The debt count is expected to surge to $35 trillion when Biden completes his current term in January 2025. So, the country's fiscal sustainability will draw more close scrutiny by investors both domestically and around the world.  

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Stabilising period in the Year of the Rabbit 2023

 

 

HSBC sees slower growth of 4.0pc for Malaysia's economy KLCI to hit 1,570 pts in 2023

The year of the Rabbit would be a stabilising period that could see Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth moderate from the expected 8.4% for 2022 to 4% in 2023, although the latter figure may still be considered a “robust” expansion rate, according to HSBC’s Global Research Economics team.

The team said Malaysia has been a clear regional outperformer in a turbulent 2022, experiencing a GDP year-on-year (y-o-y) growth of 14.2% for the first nine months of last year, making it Asean’s top performer for the second consecutive quarter in the third quarter of 2022 (3Q22).

“Despite a cooling trade cycle, Malaysia’s external engine remained surprisingly resilient in the second half of 2022, benefitting from its well-diversified mix of exports.

“While some commodity prices cooled, they have stayed at an elevated level, boosting the country’s energy exports.

“Meanwhile, Malaysia’s electronics exports have defied the global trend, pushing its trade surplus to a historic high,” the team said at the HSBC 2023 Asian Outlook conference yesterday.

The team said Malaysia’s booming domestic demand has been the main growth driver, reflecting a continued reopening tailwind.

Underpinned by an ongoing improvement in its labour market, retail sales have seen speedy recovery, with consumption of goods and most services exceeding pre-pandemic levels, except for some tourism-related sectors, it said.

As such, its co-head of Asian economics research Frederic Neumann predicted that Bank Negara would have to raise interest rates in the second quarter of 2023 – most likely to 3.5% – to keep a lid on lingering upward price pressures spilling over from last year due to the country’s extraordinary economic resilience.

On top of that, Neumann said Malaysia would remain one of the key beneficiaries of the supply chain “rejigging” that is occurring across Asia.

He expects high amounts of foreign direct investments continuing to pour into the country that would lead to further expansions in its export capacity.

“China’s reopening will benefit Malaysia’s economy, just as it will for other neighbouring economies. This is because China is a major export partner for Malaysia, which means the commodity angle would be positive.

“More importantly, Chinese companies are also investing in the country, particularly in the manufacturing sector,” said Neumann, adding that bilateral travel would also benefit the tourism sector.

The HSBC global economics research team also pointed out that while the local inflation rate has remained largely under control, in fact the lowest in Asean thanks to generous governmental subsidies, it has nonetheless accelerated.

“In particular, core inflation recently overshot 4% y-o-y, reflecting booming local demand. A large part of the inflation trajectory in 2023 will depend on the new Budget (2023).

“All in all, we believe core inflation will likely remain sticky and high in the near term and, as such, we recently upgraded our average core inflation to 3% for both 2022 and 2023,” it said.

Meanwhile, HSBC head of equity strategy for Asia-Pacific, Herald van der Linde, is expecting the FBM KLCI to hit 1,570 points by the year-end, representing a slight upside to its current standing.

He said the rationale for the forecast is the local bourse’s “stable” characteristic.

“When markets are down, investors want to be in Malaysia because it does not recede as much as the other countries.

“Conversely, if markets go into a recovery mode, as we are expecting in 2023, Malaysia is not expected to catch up as much either. It is more steady than many other bourses in the region.”

On a separate note, the team is bullish about China, projecting it to stretch its GDP growth to 5.8% next year from the 5% forecast for this year.

Chief economist for Greater China Liu Jing expects a strong rebound in the Middle Kingdom from 2Q23, the same quarter she believes the country will fully re-emerge from the lockdown effects.

“We expect consumption, which has been a laggard so far, to come back to record a growth level of approximately 8% in 2023.

“When China emerges from pandemic, the impact of housing market policy support will also materialise, giving way to what should be a modest rebound in the housing sector this year,” she said.

Van der Linde said the environment for Asian equities in 2023 would be constructive and the team remains overweight on China and India, expecting them to be the fastest growing markets this year.

“We are selective on Asean and Thailand remains our favourite market,” he said.

On how the team sees the US Federal Reserve (Fed) behaving this year – which has been and will continue to be the other major factor influencing market movement aside from the reopening of China – Neumann sees the Fed to be holding on to its rate of around 5%, before pivoting by the middle of 2024.

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