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Monday, 10 December 2012

'Cliff' worries may drive tax selling on Wall Street

By Caroline Valetkevitch

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Investors typically sell stocks to cut their losses at year end. But worries about the "fiscal cliff" - and the possibility of higher taxes in 2013 - may act as the greatest incentive to sell both winners and losers by December 31.

The $600 billion of automatic tax increases and spending cuts scheduled for the beginning of next year includes higher rates for capital gains, making tax-loss selling even more appealing than usual.

Tax-related selling may be behind the weaker trend in the shares of market leader Apple , analysts said. The stock is down 20 percent for the quarter, but it's still up nearly 32 percent for the year.

Apple dropped 8.9 percent in this past week alone. For a stock that gained more than 25 percent a year for four consecutive years, the embedded capital gains suddenly look like a selling opportunity if one's tax bill is going to jump sharply just because the calendar changes.

"Tax-loss selling is always a factor (but) tax-gains selling has been a factor this year," said Paul Mendelsohn, chief investment strategist at Windham Financial Services in Charlotte, Vermont.

"You have a lot of high-net-worth individuals in taxable accounts, and that could be what's affecting stocks like Apple. If you look at the stocks that people have their largest gains in, they seem to be under a little bit more pressure here than usual."

Of this year's top 20 performers in the S&P 1500 index, which includes large, small and mid-cap stocks, all but four have lost ground in the last five trading sessions.

The rush to avoid higher taxes on portfolio gains could cause additional weakness.

The S&P 500 ended the week up just 0.1 percent after another week of trading largely tied to fiscal cliff negotiation news, which has pushed the market in both directions.

A PAIN PILL FROM THE FED?

Next week's Federal Reserve meeting could offer some relief if policymakers announce further plans to help the lackluster U.S. economy. The Federal Open Market Committee will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday. The policy statement is expected at about 12:30 p.m. on Wednesday after the conclusion of the meeting - the Fed's last one for the year.

Friday's jobs report showing non-farm payrolls added 146,000 jobs in November eased worries that Superstorm Sandy had hit the labor market hard.

"After the FOMC meeting, I think it's going to be downhill from there as worries about the fiscal cliff really take center stage and prospects of a deal become less and less likely," said Mohannad Aama, managing director of Beam Capital Management LLC in New York.

"I think we are likely to see an escalation in profit-taking ahead of tax rates going up next year," he said.

MORE VOLUME AND VOLATILITY

Volume could increase as investors try to shift positions before year end, some analysts said.

While most of that would be in stocks, some of the extra trading volume could spill over into options, said J.J. Kinahan, TD Ameritrade's chief derivatives strategist.

Volatility could pick up as well, and some of that is already being seen in Apple's stock.

"The actual volatility in Apple has been very high while the market itself has been calm. I expect Apple's volatility to carry over into the market volatility," said Enis Taner, global macro editor at RiskReversal.com, an options trading firm in New York.

Shares of Apple, the largest U.S. company by market value, registered their worst week since May 2010. In another bearish sign, the stock's 50-day moving average fell to $599.52 - below its 200-day moving average at $601.38.

"There's a lot of tax-related selling happening now, and it will continue to happen. Apple is an example, even (though) there are other factors involved with Apple," Aama said.

While investors may be selling stocks to avoid higher taxes in 2013, companies may continue to announce special and accelerated dividend payments before year end. Among the latest, Expedia announced a special dividend of 52 cents a share to be paid on December 28.

To be sure, the big sell-off in stocks following the November 6 election was likely related to tax selling, making it hard to judge how much more is to come.

Bruce Zaro, chief technical strategist at Delta Global Asset Management in Boston, said there's a decent chance that the market could rally before year end.

"Even with little or spotty news that one would put in the positive bucket regarding the (cliff) negotiations, the market has basically hung in there, and I think it's hung in there in anticipation of something coming," he said. - Reuters

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21 Nov 2012

Sunday, 9 December 2012

China's prodigy whiz kid wants to quit school and a quiet life

Shaoyi: Is more comfortable expressing his ideas online.
 
Feng Shaoyi, a 10-year-old junior high school student, has become an online sensation for his micro blog posts about re-inventing education in the Internet era. 

FENG Shaoyi has been hounded by the media after his recent online post about his intention to quit school went viral on Sina Weibo, China’s answer to Twitter. It has attracted more than 7,000 comments and was forwarded more than 18,000 times.

The junior high school student has attracted so much attention because he’s too young to drop out. And his harsh yet insightful criticisms of the education system surprised many, especially considering he hasn’t reached his teens.

While many children his age aspire to become scientists like Einstein, Shaoyi argues that people with such “lofty ideals” are destructive to the planet. For example, Einstein’s theory of relativity led to the atomic bomb.

“My dream is to live with the girl I love. It doesn’t matter if I have to cut firewood and pick up rags for a living,” Shaoyi writes.

He claims that he wants to pursue his ideals right away instead of wasting time on “meaningless” homework and exams.

“What is the use of studying? Is it getting high marks and ranks to compete with my buddies for the limited places in top high schools?” the precocious boy writes.

Immediately after his remarks were posted, the media began telephoning Shaoyi’s father day and night. They also converged at the boy’s school in Zhuhai, Guangdong province, to pull him out of an ongoing class for interviews.

“I’m tired of interviews. It’s unscrupulous of some media to defame me,” Shaoyi tells China Daily.

He is referring to a report that quoted him as saying his actions are publicity stunts and that he enjoys seeing so many comments and an increasing number of followers.

“I didn’t say that,” Shaoyi says, grimacing while staring at the floor.

“I said it’s good that my posts have prompted people to reflect on the current school system. I wanted to attract the public’s attention to the contents of my postings, not toward me.”

Shaoyi turned up for the interview with China Daily dressed in colourful clothes, carrying a backpack and wearing a cap bearing the autographs of two of his idols from the aerobatics team of the Zhuhai Air Show.

On his micro blog, he’s outspoken, aggressive and sounds like an adult. For example, he slammed an official’s idea to invest millions to cultivate sorghum to attract tourists to Gaomi, Shandong province – the hometown of Mo Yan, Chinese Nobel Literature Prize winner.

But in person, his chubby cheeks and childish voice give away his age. In contrast to his posts, his demeanour is sombre and pensive.

His answers to many questions are: “I don’t know how to answer the question”, or, “I don’t want to talk about it”.

As he puts it: “I’m more comfortable expressing my ideas online in forums and weibo, and while chatting with my friends on QQ (an instant messaging service popular in China). I’m inspired only when I sit in front of the computer.”

The boy didn’t tell his father in person about his intention to drop out of school but, instead, added his father’s micro blog account in his message to catch his attention.

Shaoyi has impressed many readers with his knowledge. In addition to musing about Einstein and Mo Yan, he also left incisive comments on current affairs, including China’s crisis of confidence in charity and the popularity of dating and job-hunting reality TV shows in the country that reflect the difficulties Chinese face in relationships and employment.

His online postings reveal he’s a military enthusiast who’s well-versed in the different generations of China’s carrier-borne fighter planes. Many were also surprised to read the 10-year-old’s analysis of the differences between Obama and Romney.

“I’ve acquired all the extra knowledge from the Internet. Schoolteachers didn’t teach us that. They’re busy feeding us what’s in the textbooks,” Shaoyi says.

“Teachers think we kids know little about things like the US presidential election. But, in fact, many of my friends and I learned about it online.”

The inquisitive student usually turns to the Internet, rather than to his teachers, for answers to questions that pop up when he reads textbooks.

He once embarrassed his Chinese teacher by asking why some dinosaurs had feathers.

“The teacher didn’t know the answer. I searched for it on the Internet on my own, afterward,” Shaoyi recalls.

“The Web satisfies my curiosity better than school.”

Du Fang, Shaoyi’s favourite Chinese teacher during his primary school years, admits teachers are increasingly pressured to know more than their core subjects because students are exposed to a wide range of online information.

“If I fail to answer a question raised by my student, I will tell him or her that I’m not almighty,” Du says.

“As a teacher, I am here to guide them to distinguish between good and bad, and true from false, so they can make good use of online information.”

Shaoyi’s father, Feng Yingang, agrees the Internet can’t replace scholastic education.

“My son still needs guidance to sift through information on the Internet and build his knowledge base. He is like a kung fu lover, who learns all kinds of martial arts moves but lacks the internal strength to master them,” Feng says.

“It would be great if the schoolteachers can guide my son.”

Shaoyi also admits that he has difficulties digesting the glut of online information.

“I will enjoy school’s lessons better if the teachers can discuss hot issues related to the subject and tell us what materials we can refer to better understand these issues,” the boy says.

“But teachers just regurgitate textbooks’ texts.”

Shaoyi says some textbooks are outdated. For example, he owned his first cell phone at three and is able to download pictures with smartphones. But his computer science textbook covers basics like search engine use.

He also complains about junior high’s heavy study load.

During his primary school days, classes were over at 4.30pm, and he had time for his hobbies. But in junior high, he leaves home at 6am and classes end at 6pm. He goes home and does homework until 10pm.

“School life seems to be all about classes, homework, exams and rankings. Students who score well in exams are called good students, while those who don’t ask teachers questions during the 10-minute break between classes are labelled bad students,” Shaoyi says, crossing his arms and scowling.

Between mumbles, he reveals his aspiration is to become head of state so he can make everyone happy.

He says he doesn’t talk about his dream because everyone seems more concerned about how important it is to get into a top high school, then a top university and, finally, find a good job.

He doesn’t believe this is the ideal route.

Shaoyi writes on Sina Weibo: “Almost everyone in China will say there’s something wrong with you if you tell them your life ambition is to become president, but people in the US would encourage you.”

Whiz kid wants a quiet life

Feng Shaoyi and his father, Feng Yingang, in Zhuhai, Guangdong province.

Feng Shaoyi completed his primary school education within three years, rather than the typical six.

The 10-year-old even had time during those three years to act in TV dramas.

The boy claims that in primary school, he was able to finish reading a textbook in five hours and only needed the same amount of time to memorize a whole chapter, which took his teachers a whole week to teach.

His wish is to be homeschooled and only go to school for exams. Feng says he can ask his dad or surf the "powerful" Internet for answers if he has questions.

His father, Feng Yingang, who works as the sales director of a Shanghai-headquartered chemical company, believes it's unrealistic for him to find the time to tutor his son at home.

"My son wrote the online application asking to quit school to relieve stress, and to seek my attention and comfort. He didn't even know what quitting school really meant until I talked to him," the father says.

"He didn't mean he wanted to drop out. He just wanted a break."

Feng's father believes his son is still adapting to junior high. The boy feels stress about failing his first English examination, he says.

"I can understand why junior high teachers focus so much on grades and rankings," the dad says.

"It's because students need to score high marks to get into high school, which isn't guaranteed by the compulsory nine-year education policy."

He never submitted the leave application that he had completed for his son.

The boy says he still plans to study hard and end up in a good high school and university. "I was just asking for more freedom and a more relaxed studying environment," he says.

"I posted the message online because I believe school education could be improved if more people demand change after reading it."

But the public spotlight's sudden glare has proven too much for the boy.

He says he wants to "study and live a quiet life", and pay no heed to the comments about him - be they praises or criticisms.

"He may end up more stressed out if he really leaves school to study at home: All eyes will be on him, monitoring his performance," says Feng Yingang, who has requested that the teachers at his son's junior high school turn down media requests.

Du Fang, Feng Shaoyi's primary school teacher, was also cautious when talking about the boy.

"(He's) sometimes clever, sometimes mature and sometimes childish," she says.

She made these comments while in Beijing for training. "He's special to me," she says.

"To protect him, I can't say more until I return to Zhuhai and talk to him about his thoughts. After all, he's just a kid."

By Xu Jingxi www.chinadailyapac.com 
xujingxi@chinadaily.com.cn

Saturday, 8 December 2012

Malaysian PR1MA to bring affordable homes to the working class

IT is an initiative that has been long waited for. It's been reported that from today households, that earn between RM2,500 and RM7,500 a month, can register to buy affordable homes under the Perumahan Rakayat 1Malaysia (PR1MA) scheme.

Some 80,000 homes will be built and based on the number of cities PR1MA homes will be constructed, it should be well spread out in the country.

The need for affordable housing shows that having the means to buy a house is no longer the concern of the poor. Young and middle income families are increasingly being squeezed in their ability to buy a home.

A survey conducted in 2009 showed that 850,000 people or 35% of people surveyed within that income bracket were not home-owners. The scary thought is home prices have escalated since 2009 and if the survey was conducted now, the percentage could be higher.

With prices now being fixed at between RM100,000 and RM400,000 for each home, the band gives home buyers some certainty in knowing that the price of homes will be fixed.

The 80,000 homes that are going to be built by PR1MA would cater for less than 10% of the people within the income bracket who do not yet own a house. The number of homes being built I presume will only be the start of a more comprehensive programme that should see PR1MA, other governmant agencies and state agencies take on the role of the supplier of affordable homes.

Based on a previously published question and answer, PR1MA will not provide financing to applicants to buy a home. They will need to arrange for their own financing but there will be a list of panel bankers where a housing loan can be obtained from.

Its important that the interest rate being charged for loans to buy affordable homes be capped at a decent level. Mortgage calculators show that should successful balloters for homes priced at RM400,000 receive a full loan based on the price of the house, and are charged a fixed interest of 4% per annum, then it will cost them about a quarter of their monthly household income if the collective wage of the household is RM7,500 per month.

The monthly repayment for a RM100,000 house for those earning RM2,500 a month and charged the same interest on a full loan will be 19% of the monthly pay packet.

Given that the intrinsic value of the PR1MA homes should be higher if they are built on prime Government land, then the collateral value of the homes should be more than the value of the loan, hence reducing the need for such homebuyers to cough out a 10% downpayment to buy such homes.

In fact, both PR1MA and the state governments should work together to identify further land for future projects as providing a roof over the heads for Malaysians should never be made a political issue. Plus, its important for the PR1MA homes to be more than concrete public housing. There should be amenities and green spaces to make the environment more appealing to future home owners.

Acting business features editor Jagdev Singh Sidhu wonders what the price of those PR1MA homes will be after the moratorium period to sell them has ended.

MAKING A POINT By JAGDEV SINGH SIDHU
The Star

Related post/sites:
Tough issue hits home in Penang?
PR1MA pr1ma.net/

Tough issue hits home in Penang?

Affordable housing in Penang has become the Achilles Heel of the DAP-led government and the Prime Minister will be aiming his arrow for that particular spot when he arrives in Penang Dec 8, 2012.

PENANG people are known to get worked up over unusual things. A well-known NGO in Penang has been going about hugging some trees that have to make way for Penang’s burgeoning traffic.

It was quite sweet to see S.M. Mohamed Idris, the president of the Consumers Association of Penang, with his arms wrapped around a tree trunk.

But the hottest issue for most Penang folk today is affordable housing. It is not a new issue. It has been there since Tan Sri Dr Koh Tsu Koon was the Chief Minister and it was probably one of the reasons that pushed Penang voters to change the government.

The temperature is rising because the shortage of affordable housing remains a major headache for Pen­ang people.

Affordable housing has become the Achilles Heel of the DAP-led government in the state.

Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak’s visit to Penang today is seen as an arrow aimed at this Achilles Heel.

The Prime Minister’s visit is preceded by Perumahan Rakyat 1Malaysia (PR1MA), announcing that some 80,000 affordable homes are to be built in 50 cities and towns over the next three years. The fact that Najib is launching the initiative in Penang is a sign that his coalition wants to respond to the needs of the Penang people and that he has not given up on winning their support. Penangites will get the first shot at registering for the units.

It looks like affordable housing is set to become a big election issue in Penang. Pakatan Rakyat politicians claimed they have built thousands of low-cost houses while their Barisan Nasional opponents think the claims are more fictitious than real.

“I’m a Penangite and in the last four years, I have not come across any state low-cost housing scheme. Honestly, if there are any, I would know because I keep a lookout for such things and I am sure it would have appeared in the media. But it is only talked about at DAP ceramah and everyone has a different figure,” said Penang Gerakan vice-chairman Wong Mun Hoe.

The figures bandied about by various personalities in the state government have ranged from 300 units of low-cost houses to an astonishing 14,702 units built since 2008.

According to Mun Hoe, the 300 units mentioned was probably right because the project in the Bayan Lepas area had begun under the Barisan Nasional administration and was completed two years ago.

But Mun Hoe is quite mystified about claims that more than 14,000 of affordable housing have been built in the state.

The figure came from state Housing, Urban and Town Planning Committee chairman Wong Hon Wai who cited the issuance of 14,702 CFs or certificates of fitness for low-cost and low medium-cost houses since 2008 as proof that the state had provided ample affordable housing.

Hon Wai’s remarks were the latest addition to what has been a trail of confusing statements about the state government’s record on low-cost housing. Different people from the state government have come up with different figures.

It all began when the Auditor-General’s Report of 2011 stated that the Penang Government had not built a single low-cost house from 2008 to 2010.

The report also praised the state for its good financial situation which sort of put the state government in a fix because they could not deny the reprimand while accepting the pat on the back.

But the Auditor-General’s Report started a flurry of reactions from the Penang Government and that was when all sorts of figures started rolling out.

Shortly after that report, Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng said that a total 11,000 low-cost homes had been built in the state.

His political secretary Zairil Khir Johari followed up with a different but equally impressive figure.

The Barisan side were looking at each other in askance.

These people used to be the government and they know what is involved in building low-cost houses.

The figures thrown out were simply too incredible.

Earlier this week, MCA president Datuk Seri Dr Chua Soi Lek asked where all these thousands of state low-cost houses were located.

Like many others, he is beginning to think it is all hot air.

The figures are getting bigger but the houses seem to be invisible.

“If all these houses had really been built, do you think we would be here asking questions?” Mun Hoe asked.

It was against this backdrop that the Taman Manggis issue, where land meant for low-cost housing was sold to a company to build a hotel and private hospital, became so controversial. Taman Manggis is a tiny plot of land and using it for another purpose would not have raised eyebrows if the state had been doing its part in providing low-cost homes.

“First, they have not been building low-cost houses. Then, they sell land meant for the poor to the private sector.

“After we made noise, they said land had been set aside in Jalan S.P. Chelliah for low-cost housing. It sounded like a knee-jerk reaction,” said Wong.

There have also been announcements that thousands of units of affordable housing will be built in Batu Kawan on the Seberang Prai side.

But that had also raised questions about whether all the rich folk will be living on the island while the poor end up on the mainland.

The Penang Government has been put on the defensive over the issue of affordable housing and PR1MA’s big launch today will only add to the pressure.

ANALYSIS
By JOCELINE TAN

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Friday, 7 December 2012

Citigroup to sack more than 11,000 jobs


NEW YORK — Citigroup's move to sack more than 11,000 workers may foreshadow bigger cuts as its newly installed chief executive shakes up the lumbering Wall Street behemoth.

The New York bank's restructuring — coupled with a $1-billion write-down in the fourth quarter — came as Citi, like other financial giants, suffers through a hangover from the housing meltdown and struggles to adjust to the resulting regulations.


 "This is simply just the beginning," said Todd Hagerman, an analyst at Sterne Agee. Restructuring on Wall Street, as firms prune non-core businesses, is "going to be fairly painful over the next several years."

A $1-billion charge might otherwise throw cold water on a company's stock. But investors clearly approved of Citi's restructuring, which came sooner than analysts expected — only seven weeks into Michael Corbat's tenure as CEO. Citi stock jumped $2.17, or 6.3%, closing Wednesday at $36.46.

Corbat took Citi's helm after Vikram Pandit's abrupt departure from the CEO suite in October, following a long-simmering dispute with the bank's board of directors. Analysts saw Citi's layoffs as a much-needed first step, though not enough to satisfy restive investors.

"We view this move as an initial 'tremor,' and that an 'earthquake' or more radical restructuring is needed before the April 16th annual meeting to satisfy activists," Mike Mayo, a banking analyst with CLSA, wrote in a note. "While clearly a portion of these moves must have already been in the works, the moves today create a tone that the new CEO will not take half-measures."

Big Wall Street banks have been shrinking their payrolls to maintain profits in the wake of the financial crisis and sweeping new regulations aimed at reducing risk.

As of Sept. 30, Bank of America's head count had fallen 6% from the previous year to 272,600, regulatory filings show. Morgan Stanley's payroll was down 7% to 57,726, and Goldman Sachs' payroll had fallen 5% to 32,600 over the same period.

Citi's more than 11,000 job cuts account for 4% of its global workforce of 261,000.

About 6,200 of the layoffs will come from Citi's consumer banking operations in the U.S. and around the world as the company focuses on 150 cities with the "highest growth potential," the bank said. Other cuts include 1,900 jobs in its group serving institutional clients.

The cuts include closures of 44 U.S. consumer banking branches.

Four California branches will close Dec. 14. Affected customers have been notified of the closures in North Hollywood, Santa Rosa, Fresno and at John Wayne Airport, a spokeswoman said. FDIC records show 382 of Citibank's 1,060 U.S. offices are in California, the most of any state.

"These actions are logical next steps in Citi's transformation," Corbat said in a statement. "While we are committed to — and our strategy continues to leverage — our unparalleled global network and footprint, we have identified areas and products where our scale does not provide for meaningful returns."

In addition to the U.S. branches, Citigroup will close 14 in Brazil, seven in Hong Kong, 15 in South Korea and four in Hungary. The company also said it expected to "sell or significantly scale back" its consumer banking operations in Pakistan, Paraguay, Romania, Turkey and Uruguay.

Citi said the cuts would save $900 million in 2013 and produce $1.1 billion in annual savings in 2014 and beyond.

Although the bank said it would book a $1-billion pre-tax charge in the fourth quarter, along with $100 million in related charges in the first half of 2013, Citi said the restructuring would reduce annual revenue by less than $300 million.

"That just tells you how poorly this company has been under-performing in a number of different areas over the last several years," Hagerman said. - AP/LA Times/Reuters/USA Today

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