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Showing posts with label Alan Tong. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Alan Tong. Show all posts

Monday 11 August 2014

Hang on to the roof over your head

Purchasing a property while the prices and mortgage rates are within reach becomes a secure way of protecting your finances against the battering of rising inflation - Both primary and secondary markets are worth considering


The ever changing economic condition and unpredictable spending behaviours make it even more challenging to find the real equilibrium in interest rate.

Bank Negara’s recent move to raise the benchmark overnight policy rate (OPR) from 3% to 3.25% was expected since the last OPR adjustment was three years ago in May 2011.

An OPR increase is always associated with an increase in interest rate.

Bank Negara has taken a bold step to address the economic challenge and became the first country in South-East Asia to increase the benchmark rate in an improved economic environment.

It is a prudent move by the authority in view of the upward pressure on inflation rate and the high household debt at 86.8% of gross domestic product in 2013.

So, how does this increase in interest rate affect us, the public?

Most people generally only relate an interest rate hike to financing cost which includes mortgage and personal loan rates.

In effect, it has a far more profound impact.

Changes in OPR directly affect the overall Base Lending Rate (BLR) which in turn, affects the spending behaviours of businesses and consumers as well as the dynamics of the overall economy.

On one hand, it is used to curb rising household debt and control spending.

On the other, higher interest rate would help to generate a neutral real rate of return for normal savings which is comparatively higher than fixed deposit rate.

However, what does this mean to us in the long run when interest rate is on the rising trend?

This is an interesting question in terms of personal spending and investment planning as it relates to interest rate movement.

Prof Dr Jeremy Siegel, of the Wharton School of Business and best selling author of Stocks for the Long Run, used to say when inflation kicked in, stock prices would go down in the short-term, due to concerns of reduced profits.

Eventually, however, stock prices would rise again in the medium and longer term, when investors realised that stocks could be used as a tool to hedge against inflation, as businesses would past higher costs through to their customers.

It is also interesting to see people sell and buy stocks for the same reason at different times with different considerations.

Similar movements may be observed in other types of investments when people take a longer term view of better ways to navigate through the challenges of inflation.

Prudent spending is always encouraged regardless of good and bad times.

With it, comes prudent planning and investment.

When inflation rate is on an upward trend and value of currencies continues to drop due to the massive quantitative easing (printing of money) measures around the world, using investments to hedge against inflation is one of the strategies to secure our financial future.

One of the investment assets that warrants deeper consideration and provides longer term investment protection is property.

Real estate works well as a hedging tool for a couple of reasons.

Investing early in real estate protects investors against rising land prices, and increasing construction costs during inflation.

Properties purchased before the onset of inflation will still have the protection of the continuous demand to meet the housing needs of a growing population in Malaysia.

An advice that I have continuously heard since my schools days till today is “Hang on to the roof over your head. It will help to keep you financially strong.”

This advice has remained valid over the years. It is not enough to just keep enough cash for rainy days.

Purchasing a property while the prices and mortgage rates are within reach becomes a secure way of protecting your finances against the battering of rising inflation.

This is especially true for those who have yet to own one.

Both primary and secondary markets are worth looking at, as there is surely be something out there that will meet your financial requirement.

“Hang on to the roof over your head” is a time-tested wisdom that will protect you in more ways than one for the future.

FIABCI Asia-Pacific regional secretariat chairman Datuk Alan Tong has over 50 years of experience in property development. He is also the group chairman of Bukit Kiara Properties. For feedback, please email feedback@fiabci-asiapacific.com.

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Wednesday 14 May 2014

Car or house buying cooling off measures?

Cooling off measures for car purchases also?

Key points: 

(1). Higher percentage of bankruptcies from inability to repay cars HPs than housing loans.
(2). The second largest household debt component, about RM145bil, is paid for an asset that is contracting in value every year.

WHAT are the considerations when you purchase a car?

Are the model and its functions important? Does the status symbol carry more weight? Or affordability is the main concern? Don’t get me wrong, I am not conducting a survey to change my profession. I am just curious to find out the major considerations of purchasing a car.

The topic interests me as car ownership among Malaysians, especially the young adults keep increasing. Many times, their choice of car is somewhat extravagant compared to the income they may be generating at this early stage of their careers.

This issue caught my attention when a news report last month stated that 122,169 Malaysians were declared bankrupt between 2007 and 2013, according to the Department of Insolvency. About 26% of the bankruptcies were due to the inability to settle the hire-purchase payment for vehicles, which involved 33,570 people since 2007.

When I searched further for other causes of bankruptcies, the available information for the period from 2005 to May 2010 indicated that car loans was also the chief reason for bankruptcy during that period. It was followed by 11.8% due to personal loans, 10.9% of bankruptcies due to non-repayment of business loans, and only 7.5% was caused by housing loans. Looking at the statistics, it is significant that for many years, more than one-fourth of bankruptcies in our country had been caused by car loans. It reflects on the household stress in repaying car loans, and this high default rate should trigger some thoughts among the authorities and the people.

According to Bank Negara statistics, as at April 2013, housing loans account for 57.5% of total household debts, while car loans, personal loans and credit cards account for 26.5%, 10% and 6% respectively. It means that the second-largest household debt component, about RM145bil, is paid for an asset that is contracting in value every year.

I wonder how many households are struggling to repay their car loans today, and how many of them, especially the younger generation, have deferred their financial wealth planning because of car loans? With the high percentage mentioned above and the rising household debt, there arises the question of whether cooling-off measures should also be extended to the car industry which is causing severe household stress.

Cooling-off measures for the car industry that can be considered include shorter loan period, more stringent loan-to-income ratio, and to impose certain charges if a car owner purchases additional cars in less than a certain number of years. These measures may help to reduce the number of cars on the road and discourage household spending on private vehicles. In the process, we will also be reducing traffic jams.

As shared in my previous articles titled “Reality Check on Debt Mountain” and “Good Debt, Bad Debt”, a car depreciates 10% to 20% per year based on car insurance calculation and accounting practice. In contrast, housing loans have underlying assets that are likely to appreciate over the long term.

Depreciative asset

Do we want to defer our financial planning instead and trade our opportunity of owning an appreciative asset for a depreciative asset? Perhaps, the authorities should encourage the people to borrow only for very good reasons, and to purchase assets only after thorough research.

This reminds me of an episode that I am personally aware of. It goes back to the early 1900s, when a 16-year-old migrant from China came to Malaya (now Malaysia) to seek a living, with no money in his pocket. Due to his diligence, hardwork and frugality, he was able to marry a young pretty girl ten years later and start a family and they eventually had 13 children.

What was astonishing is that he was able to send 7 of his 8 sons overseas for their tertiary education, all due to his frugality, hardwork and integrity. When he passed away, he was even able to leave behind a legacy of a bus company with over 30 buses and 4 small pieces of land in a small town.

Would this episode stimulate our young people to contemplate about what is best for their future?

Although the cooling-off measures for the car sector may be a new idea to ponder, however, with the Government’s plan to upgrade our public transport facilities and services, it is an area for consideration to increase public transport usage and encourage healthy financial planning in the long run.

After all, if senior executives in major cities like London and Tokyo are comfortable using public transportation to commute in their daily lives, can we not also do likewise (if our public transportation are improved)?

Coming back to the questions I asked in the beginning of this article... while I understand people put emphasis on different features of a car depending on their requirements and stage of life, it is always good to include the affordability aspect in a car purchase decision, so as not to be dragged down by the car which is bought to carry us forward.

P/S: The 16-year-old migrant happened to be my late father. He passed away at the age of 63 in 1962.

Contributed by Datuk Alan Tong

FIABCI Asia-Pacific regional secretariat chairman Datuk Alan Tong has over 50 years of experience in property development. He is also the group chairman of Bukit Kiara Properties. For feedback, please email feedback@fiabci-asiapacific.com. The views expressed are entirely the writer's own.

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